estimate global economic growth of +4.6% in 2021, followed by a sustained recovery in 2022 at +3.8%, as a result of the vaccine rollout.
“As it stands, it looks like it will get worse before it gets better," says Kirsten Neergaard, Nordic Director of Risk, Information, Claims & Collection at Allianz Trade.
“After a resurgence in the economy in the summer and autumn of 2020, another wave of the pandemic hit, and new lockdowns followed in its wake. We’re experiencing a small recession at the moment but there’s a possibility of an incipient recovery if the vaccines roll out as planned," she adds.
Vaccine economics is about confidence
Despite hurdles, especially on the supply side, Allianz Trade expects the vaccination of vulnerable sections of the population in most countries to still remain achievable by the end of summer 2021 setting the stage for economic growth in H2 2021.
Vaccine economics is about confidence. The rollout of vaccines should provide the confidence to restart the service economy, the confidence for people to begin consuming precautionary savings, and the confidence for businesses to resume corporate investments.
“Vaccine economics is all about confidence and that’s why we expect a technical economic recovery in H2 2021. However, certain sectors will only see recovery in 2022”, says Kirsten Neergaard.