The growth of the world economy is slowing down further. This is evident from our report on the economic outlook. Our research department predicts global GDP growth to be +2.9% in 2022 and +2.5% in 2023. That's -0.4pp and -0.3pp, respectively, lower than our calculation from three months ago.
Negative factors are piling up, such as the ongoing war in Ukraine, the measures taken by central banks to make borrowing more expensive and the enormous price increases (inflation) of especially energy, food and raw materials. As a result, companies and consumers are keeping a closer eye on their budgets. The question is whether we will end up in a recession. That is not the first scenario we expect. In the Eurozone, we saw that GDP growth held up remarkably well in the first half of 2022 despite numerous negative factors. Supply chains will recover in the near future, which is good news for the industry. If Russia decides to stop supplying oil and gas completely, the EU, in particular, will have to consider a recession.