The Allianz Trade Export Forecast stands at –1.26 points in August 2023 (May: –0.79 points). The upward trend has been broken. However, the latest data do at least suggest that the indicator may have bottomed out. The environment nevertheless remains extremely challenging for the economy and the export business in particular. Fortunately, the continued solidity of the labour markets is providing an important foundation for consumer confidence and the overall economy.

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The Allianz Trade Export Forecast stands at –0.79 points in May 2023 (February: –1.26 points). The leading indicator for the Swiss export economy is therefore approaching the long-term growth rate. After stagnating in the fourth quarter of 2022, exports began growing again in the first quarter of 2023. Inflation picked up over the same period. Economic forecasts were revised upwards around the world – but not for Switzerland.

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The Allianz Trade Export Forecast stands at –1.26 points in February 2023 (November 2022: –1.40 points). Although the leading indicator has risen somewhat, the current score points to a probable decline in exports this year, as last year’s rise in exports of 7.2% only occurred thanks to high inflation. In real terms, i. e. adjusted for inflation, exports stagnated in 2022 (+0.1%). Growth forecasts for Switzerland have been revised downwards.

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The Allianz Trade Export Forecast stands at –1.40 points in November (August: –1.13 points). The indicator is thus moving further away from zero, the line which marks the long-term trend growth. Negative annual growth rates are expected for exports over the next six to twelve months. Growth forecasts for trade in North America and Switzerland have been revised downwards, while those for Europe have been adjusted upwards. 

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