Allianz Trade Export Forecast

The Allianz Trade Export Forecast takes into account a wide range of data relevant to the Swiss export industry. 

The Allianz Trade Export Forecast takes into account a wide range of data relevant to the Swiss export industry. Leading indicators of industry, transport, financial and commodity markets as well as new sentiment indicators are taken into account. Around 100 components flow into a dynamic, predictive model in which data series with a stronger lead are weighted higher. The Allianz Trade Export Forecast has a lead time of up to six months compared to the actual exports of the Swiss export industry.

 

forecast august
Export Forecast, May 2022: Exports approaching long-term trend growth

The Allianz Trade Export Forecast stands at 0.33 points in May 2022 (February 2022: 0.69 points). The indicator is slowly approaching the long-term trend growth. At present, the signs are still pointing
to above-average export growth. If it takes a long time for the crises the world is experiencing to ease, there is a risk of a sharper counter-movement over the course of the year. Growth forecasts for world
trade have already been adjusted downwards.

 

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forecast august
Export Forecast, February 2022: Above-average export growth

The Euler Hermes Export Forecast stands at 0.69 points in February 2022 (November 2021: 0.95 points). Above-average export growth can therefore be expected once again over the next six months. In the highly developed industrial countries, economic growth is expected to remain strong this year at 3.9% in real terms. The emerging markets will grow by 4.7% this year, only 0.8 percentage points more than the traditional industrialised countries.

 

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forecast august
Export Forecast, December 2021: Further growth expected despite headwind

The Euler Hermes Export Forecast stands at 0.95 points in November (August 2021: 1.85 points). Accordingly, further double-digit export growth can be expected in the coming half year. The outlook for Europe has improved significantly over the past three months, while the forecasts for the US have been revised downwards. The outlook for the emerging markets remains stable.

 

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forecast august
Export Forecast, August 2021: Export Forecast at a high level despite decline

The Euler Hermes Export Forecast stands at 1.85 points. Although this figure is 1.4 points lower than three months ago, the indicator remains at a level that was last achieved in the recovery phase after the financial crisis in 2009. The global labour markets have improved markedly in recent months, which should have a positive impact on consumption. The leading indicators for industry remain on course for a record.


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