Allianz 

Trade
CONTACT US
Search

    

Allianz Trade Export Forecast

The Allianz Trade Export Forecast takes into account a wide range of data relevant to the Swiss export industry. 

The Allianz Trade Export Forecast takes into account a wide range of data relevant to the Swiss export industry. Leading indicators of industry, transport, financial and commodity markets as well as new sentiment indicators are taken into account. Around 100 components flow into a dynamic, predictive model in which data series with a stronger lead are weighted higher. The Allianz Trade Export Forecast has a lead time of up to six months compared to the actual exports of the Swiss export industry.

 

forecast february
Export Forecast, February 2023: Allianz Trade Export Forecast rises

The Allianz Trade Export Forecast stands at –1.26 points in February 2023 (November 2022: –1.40 points). Although the leading indicator has risen somewhat, the current score points to a probable decline in exports this year, as last year’s rise in exports of 7.2% only occurred thanks to high inflation. In real terms, i. e. adjusted for inflation, exports stagnated in 2022 (+0.1%). Growth forecasts for Switzerland have been revised downwards.

 

 Read the full report now

 

forecast august
Export Forecast, November 2022: Allianz Trade Export Forecast continues to fall

The Allianz Trade Export Forecast stands at –1.40 points in November (August: –1.13 points). The indicator is thus moving further away from zero, the line which marks the long-term trend growth. Negative annual growth rates are expected for exports over the next six to twelve months. Growth forecasts for trade in North America and Switzerland have been revised downwards, while those for Europe have been adjusted upwards. 

 

 Read the full report now

 

forecast august
Export Forecast, September 2022: Allianz Trade Export Forecast falls sharply

The Allianz Trade Export Forecast stands at –1.13 points in the third quarter (May: +0.33 points). The indicator has thus fallen well below the long-term trend growth. Negative annual growth rates are expected for exports over the next six to twelve months. Growth forecasts for the global economy have been adjusted downwards again.

 

 Read the full report now

 

Product Information 

Newsletter Subscribtion