Ask Edmond

What are the deciding factors in post-pandemic recovery?

We have all seen what Covid-19 has done to global trade. Now the question is which countries and sectors are going to bounce back quicker than others.

While the number of COVID cases and vaccination rates are the two crucial elements in a country’s economic recovery, free trade agreements such as RCEP and CPTPP are set to provide further boost to intra-regional trade. In APAC, apart from strong recoveries led by China, other economies like Singapore, Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Vietnam all share strong trade synergies and are well positioned to benefit from even more regional trade integration.

What’s coming AFTER the crisis?

The longevity and intensity of the pandemic not only has forced a lot of governments across the world to introduce further lockdowns and curfews, but also extended measures to support and protect companies. However, how long will these government support schemes last, and have they kept some companies alive? In many cases, yes. Has there been a state of debt hibernation? Absolutely. The debt is still there. These questions are important as they highlight the lack of trade integrity, payment certainty and probability of company failures right now.

So what’s coming? Insolvencies! Based on my experience during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and 2009. After the GFC, insolvencies increased by 22% in 2008 and 20% in 2009.

What companies should look for in post-pandemic recovery?

With so many economic uncertainties around the world, trade integrity is in doubt right now. And that is why it is so important for businesses to know WHO they are selling to, WHEN they are going to get paid, HOW their customers have performed, but specifically, WHICH customers are struggling as well as which customers are thriving.

This is where Allianz Trade can offer trade credit solutions that not only can protect businesses but also help them to grow sales. 

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