Bankruptcies: record figure in Belgium in 2024

In our latest Global Insolvency Report, we reveal a more serious outlook for the global business landscape, with an expected 11% increase in insolvencies by 2024 - an even sharper rise than previously expected. With a further increase of +2% in 2025 before stabilizing at a high level in 2026.The report highlights key trends and risks for companies worldwide as the global economy struggles with sluggish demand, ongoing geopolitical tensions and uneven financing conditions.

Key outcomes:

• Belgium reaches a 10-year record in 2024 with more than 11,000 bankruptcies (+8%).
• More than half of global GDP faces a double-digit increase in business failures by 2024.
• More than 1.6 million jobs in Europe and North America would be at risk by 2025.

In Belgium, where the catch-up in the number of bankruptcies began earlier (2022) and already appeared large, the number of failures will reach a 10-year record in 2024, with more than 11,000 cases (+8%), and a notable increase in the construction, transport and logistics sectors.

"For 2025 and 2026, we expect the - albeit moderate - strengthening of economic and financial conditions to contribute to a decrease in the number of bankruptcies. With a gradual return by the end of 2026 to the average of 2016-2019, after 10,600 cases in 2025 and less than 10,000 cases in 2026. Only then will the number of bankruptcies decrease by -6%," says Johan Geeroms, our Director Risk Underwriting Benelux.

When we released our first global insolvency forecast in February, we were already expecting a sharp increase in 2024 (+9%), followed by a stabilization in 2025. However, recent developments have led to an even grimmer picture, with a projected increase of +11% for this year (+2pps from the previous forecast), followed by a peak of +2% in 2025 (+2pps from the previous forecast). The number of business failures will thus stabilize only in 2026, and even then, they will remain at a high level.

We expect bankruptcies in the US to increase +12% in 2025 and decrease -4% in 2026. In Germany, they will increase by +4% and decrease by -4% in 2026. In France and the UK, the number of bankruptcies will decrease slightly after a very high level (-6% in 2025 for both countries versus -3% and -4%, respectively, in 2026), while bankruptcies in Italy will continue to increase (+4% and +3%, respectively). In China, corporate bankruptcies will increase from a low level, at +5% and +6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. 

More than half of global GDP will be affected by double-digit increases.  So far, corporate insolvencies have already risen +9%, and the increase is broadly spread across all regions and sectors. Globally, our insolvency index for 2024 is likely to stand +13% above the 2016-2019 average, but -11% below the level of the global financial crisis ((2008-2010).

In particular, the number of large bankruptcies has reached new record levels, with Western Europe leading this trend. This also poses a major threat to employment, especially in Europe and North America. By 2025, more than 2 million jobs could be at risk in these regions, the highest level in a decade.

While a gradual easing of monetary policy may provide some relief, it will not be a panacea for struggling businesses. Lower interest rates lower borrowing costs, improve cash flow and boost profitability, but they cannot fully address the financial challenges hanging over companies' heads.

“Corporates have already been deleveraging and adjusting to high rates. Our analysis suggests the current easing cycle (-2pps by September 2025) would lead to -4pps reduction in the insolvency trend, thanks to higher margins (up to +2pp in Germany, +4pps in France, +3pp in the UK and +2.8pp in the US). However, this would only slightly offset the overall increase in the US, for example, and reinforce the decrease in France”, ends Maxime Lemerle, Lead Analyst for insolvency research at Allianz Trade.