Economic Outlook 2026–27: The Fog of War. Discover how our experts model the impact of geopolitical tensions and what risks — and opportunities — they create for your sector, customers and financial strategy.
Geopolitical tensions are creating a new risk regime
What CFOs must do now as we head toward 2026
Download our report
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are pushing the global economy into a new risk regime. Our experts observe how lower growth, higher inflation, volatile energy prices and tighter financing conditions are fundamentally reshaping the economic environment. For CFOs — particularly in open economies such as Belgium and the Netherlands — it has become essential to look ahead faster and more accurately than in previous years.
The pressing question is this: how do you ensure that your organization remains resilient in the face of risks that emerge faster and more intensely than before?
A global economy where volatility becomes the norm
Global growth expectations for 2026 have been revised downward, while inflation is expected to come in higher. With widening fiscal deficits limiting the room for manoeuvre of central banks, financing costs remain elevated. This complicates planning and budgeting and increases pressure on margins — especially when input costs and energy markets remain so unpredictable.
For many companies in Belgium and the Netherlands, deeply integrated into international value chains, shocks also transmit more quickly. Supply‑chain disruptions, commodity‑price fluctuations or shifts in customer payment behaviour tend to hit these economies with exceptional speed.
Cost structures under pressure and tighter financing conditions
The combination of energy volatility, rising logistics costs and more cautious lending is creating a business environment in which liquidity once again becomes central. Not only operationally, but strategically as well. Investments are being scrutinised more critically, and the cost of capital is once again a decisive factor in decision‑making.
Our data on payment behaviour and sector risk also shows that companies in energy‑intensive industries, transport and consumer‑driven markets are finding it increasingly difficult to protect their margins. The expectation that global insolvencies will rise again in 2026 reinforces this trend.
As Johan Geeroms, our Benelux Risk Underwriting Director, puts it: “Companies that only partially restored their balance sheets after the pandemic and energy crisis are now entering the danger zone. The coming years won’t be a sprint but a marathon.”
Hormuz as a potential tipping point for the global economy
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz functions as a stress test for the global system. In our baseline scenario — where passage is disrupted for several months — global growth still holds up, although inflation and interest rates rise again. But in the adverse scenario — a prolonged blockade — the shift is swift: global growth halves in 2026 and turns negative in 2027.
According to Johan Geeroms, the energy component is key: “In the negative scenario, you see how quickly the dynamics tilt into a true stagflationary recession. It’s the prolonged energy disruption that does the real damage.”
Europe: more resilient than in 2022, but without the luxury of delay
While Europe is better prepared than in 2022 — with more diversified energy sources and a stronger labour market — our region is still not shielded from impact. In the baseline scenario, growth moves toward stagnation; in the adverse scenario, Europe slips into a technical recession.
Johan Geeroms emphasizes that Europe no longer has the luxury of postponing essential reforms. Accelerating the energy transition, strengthening the internal market and improving the business environment are no longer abstract ambitions, but immediate conditions for maintaining competitiveness.
What CFOs can do now
The core of our analysis is that financial leaders must recalibrate their organisations for a world that is structurally more volatile. Liquidity and cash flows require deeper scenario analysis. Commercial risks must be reviewed more frequently and in greater detail, especially now that payment patterns and sector risks shift more rapidly. And supply chains require a level of visibility that goes beyond operational efficiency: it is about resilience — and the ability to switch to alternatives when conditions demand it.
These three domains — liquidity, commercial risk and supply‑chain resilience — form the foundation of a financial strategy that can withstand unexpected shocks.
Our role as your partner in insight and risk management
We monitor geopolitical developments, sector trends and global payment behaviour every day. We use this knowledge to support you as a CFO in identifying risks early and strengthening your forward view, enabling you to make confident decisions — even as economic visibility deteriorates.