Number of bankruptcies falls higher than expected

By mid-2024, the upward trend of bankruptcies in Europe accelerates. Globally, almost 70% of all countries will be above pre-corona levels by the end of this year. Belgium does not score well either, just like the countries around us. This is according to interim figures from credit insurer Allianz Trade.

For Belgium, the credit insurer predicted early this year a bankruptcy increase of +6% for the whole of 2024. For 2025, a 5% decrease in insolvencies was even predicted. However, halfway through this year, the score already stands at +11% y/y. Start-ups, younger than 5 years, and small companies with up to 10 employees are particularly affected.

Things are remarkably bad in Sweden. An increase of +9% was calculated there for the whole year. So far, the increase is +58% y/y. Germany was predicted to rise +13% for 2024, now the credit insurer assumes +21% for the whole of 2024.

Notable other risers in Europe are (mid-2024, y/y): Austria (+27%), Ireland (+25%), France (+21%) and Italy (+20%). Better performers are Denmark where we see sharp declines (-21%) and, to a lesser extent, the UK (-1%).

Johan Geeroms, Director Risk Underwriting Benelux at Allianz Trade about the figures. "We are on our way to stabilisation. In our earlier forecast, we assumed zero global bankruptcy growth by 2025. When exactly such a turnaround takes place is hard to pinpoint exactly. It looks like that turnaround is shifting somewhat."

For each country, Allianz Trade's report shows the vulnerability of sectors (bankruptcies in Q1, change in % y/y). In Belgium, industry has the lowest growth in bankruptcies with +9%. The largest increase is seen in ICT & telecoms with +39%. This is followed by construction and trade with +21%, transport and storage with +14%, real estate/finance and education/health care with +13% each, and hospitality/food services with +11%.

According to Geeroms, we are facing a treacherous economic climate. "Are we slowly moving in the right direction or will we continue to languish? In the US, the economy is booming, but our main export market Germany shows very little upside. That should be a warning to entrepreneurs. We see that companies are currently paying their invoices later and later, globally, in Europe and also in Belgium. Later payment puts pressure on working capital and increases the likelihood of defaults and bankruptcies. Even healthy companies can be affected by this."

On bankruptcies worldwide in 2024, Allianz Trade research states that one in two countries will see a noticeable or sharp increase. Two in three countries will end the year above pre-pandemic levels (2016-2019 average). In 2023, this was still one in two countries. Regionally, this trend will translate into increases in all regions, with North America leading the way with +29%, followed by Western Europe with +14% and Asia with +8% (excluding China). Globally, a moderate increase is expected in 2025 (+1%).