• The escalation of the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine is likely to have important economic and financial consequences through three main transmission channels — energy, trade, and the financial sector — depending how current and future sanctions will play out. Note that Russia is in a stronger position than it was in 2014 economically speaking.
  • As the world reopens from Covid-19 with higher inflation, disrupted energy and supply chains, and sensitive financial markets, our scenario “Conflict escalation” highlight impacts on Europe’s inflation (+100bps), growth (-0.5pp), equity markets (-10%), sovereign and corporate spreads (+20-60bps), and policy outlook (dovish pivot, fiscal support reloaded to offset impact). Severity of sanctions is a clear gradient for economic and financial markets outcomes.
  • In an extreme “Black-out” scenario in which Russia turns off Europe’s gas supply, the natural gas price would rise to an average of 140 EUR/MW, because alternative suppliers are limited. This would add up to +2.5pp to our current Eurozone inflation forecast of 3.8% this year. As for the headwinds to economic growth, a recession will be all but certain.

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Aug 09, 2022

Global economy slows down

The growth of the world economy is slowing down further. This is evident from our report on the economic outlook. Read the full report here.

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Jul 20, 2022

Germany will be climate-neutral in 2035

Germany is heavily dependent on Russia for gas, oil and coal. The country wants to put an end to it as soon as possible. Read the full report.

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Jul 15, 2022

Increase of European plane tickets

Significant more expensive plane tickets and great uncertainty linked to perpetual cancellations. This is what European travelers can expect in the future.

97 results