• The escalation of the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine is likely to have important economic and financial consequences through three main transmission channels — energy, trade, and the financial sector — depending how current and future sanctions will play out. Note that Russia is in a stronger position than it was in 2014 economically speaking.
  • As the world reopens from Covid-19 with higher inflation, disrupted energy and supply chains, and sensitive financial markets, our scenario “Conflict escalation” highlight impacts on Europe’s inflation (+100bps), growth (-0.5pp), equity markets (-10%), sovereign and corporate spreads (+20-60bps), and policy outlook (dovish pivot, fiscal support reloaded to offset impact). Severity of sanctions is a clear gradient for economic and financial markets outcomes.
  • In an extreme “Black-out” scenario in which Russia turns off Europe’s gas supply, the natural gas price would rise to an average of 140 EUR/MW, because alternative suppliers are limited. This would add up to +2.5pp to our current Eurozone inflation forecast of 3.8% this year. As for the headwinds to economic growth, a recession will be all but certain.

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Apr 19, 2024

Belgians get substantially more money

The average amount Belgians added per year over the past 20 years in financial assets was €2,380. This is according to our report on private financial assets in the nine main EU countries. Read more.


Apr 10, 2024

The risk of payment default increases considerably

Global companies are paying their invoices later and later. On average, the global DSO increased by +3 days, to 59 days by 2023. Want to know more? Read it here.


Mar 26, 2024

What are the forecasts for the automotive industry?

Our Economic Research Centre outlines the outlook for the automotive sector in this report. Read the summary here or download the report.

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