This article contains:
Key insights
- Financial pressures and volatile energy prices are increasing the likelihood of bankruptcies with a peak expected in 2025.
- Global renewable energy capacity grew by 10% in 2024, driven by solar and wind, though fierce competition and supply chain challenges are straining industry margins.
- Europe's push for climate neutrality and geopolitical tensions are reshaping energy strategies.
Oil and gas industry
Europe is aiming for climate neutrality by 2050, which will require major reductions in the use of fossil fuels. Large companies such as Shell and BP are increasingly investing in renewable energy and hydrogen technology to meet stricter environmental regulations and public pressure.
Transverse to this is the impact of geopolitical events, such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and unrest in the Middle East. This creates price volatility and uncertainty in supply. Europe has reduced dependence on Russian gas through LNG imports from the U.S. and the Middle East, but remains vulnerable to disruptions.

Trump: good for oil and gas, bad for energy transition
According to our research department, Trump's return means bad news for the energy transition. Never before has the US pumped as much oil as it did last year, and under Trump this will only increase further. So will LNG exports. More LNG exports will feel European citizens and companies directly in their pockets. According to our research department, gas prices in Europe could fall by more than 15% over the next five years, due to additional LNG exports including from the US.
Trump's return puts a brake on the energy transition. In his first term, he already scrapped numerous environmental regulations, such as the Clean Power Plan and stricter emission standards for vehicles. He is expected to continue this line again. Thus, he will address the billions of dollars in subsidies and loans for accelerating the energy transition.
This change in direction not only undermines U.S. efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also frustrates climate policy globally. Thus, less funding for renewable energy projects and less international cooperation will put great pressure on the Paris climate goals.
Trump promises to lower fuel prices, but it won't be that easy. The cost of oil production is already close to break even. And additional production capacity will only have an effect in the medium term.
Furthermore, geopolitical factors also play a role. A good example is Iran. There is a good chance that Trump will reimpose heavy sanctions to reduce Iranian oil exports. New sanctions could fuel tensions in the oil market. We believe that this could potentially raise oil prices by 5-10%. This would not only increase global inflation but also raise tensions in the Middle East. Especially around the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil trade passes.
Importance of LNG in the Benelux growing
Within the energy transition, gas serves as a transition fuel with lower emissions than oil and coal. The demand for LNG continues to rise. Countries such as the Netherlands and Belgium have invested heavily in LNG infrastructure. Although there will be a gradual decline in LNG demand as renewable energy is further integrated.
Decarbonization requires investment in technologies such as carbon capture and hydrogen production. This entails high costs, affecting smaller companies in particular. At the same time, the EU is introducing stricter regulations and higher emission allowances, putting pressure on corporate strategies.
Europe and Benelux
European investments
Focus areas for the coming years
Although "green energy" applications are booming, many energy companies in the sustainability space are struggling to thrive. This apparent contradiction can be explained by a combination of factors affecting the market. We zoom in on some of the factors:
Fierce competition
One of the main challenges is intensifying competition. As more companies enter the market to respond to the growing demand for sustainable solutions, competitive pressure increases. This leads to lower profit margins and an intensified battle for market share. Innovation is crucial to remain competitive, but the cost of research and development is high and is often a barrier for companies.
The renewable energy industry, especially solar and wind, is facing intense price pressure. In the solar sector, price competition is unprecedentedly fierce, mainly due to overproduction and the dominance of low-cost products from Asia. For many European companies, with higher production costs and fewer economies of scale to exploit, it is becoming increasingly difficult to remain competitive. In addition, wind turbine manufacturers are dealing with material costs that have stabilized at high levels and supply chain issues, which are further reducing their margins. The margin pressure can be fatal for companies with limited financial buffers, increasing the likelihood of bankruptcy.
Price fluctuations
The geopolitical uncertainties surrounding energy supply cause strong price fluctuations. The "energy crisis" a few years ago gave a strong boost to demand for renewable energy, but as energy prices plummeted in 2023, so did the urgency for many companies and citizens to take up renewable energy. This continued volatility can leave energy companies facing unsustainable debt burdens, making them vulnerable to bankruptcy. Volatility has also made securing financing more difficult.
Changing regulations
The European Union has set ambitious climate goals, such as the obligation to reduce carbon emissions by 55% by 2030. The stricter regulations impose additional compliance costs and oblige companies. Traditional energy companies whose revenue model relies heavily on fossil fuels will have to drastically change their business models, leading to high transformation costs.
Supply chain
Furthermore, the complexity of the supply chain plays a role. Dependence on raw materials such as lithium and rare metals for technologies such as batteries and solar cells creates vulnerability in the chain. Shortages and price increases in materials can drive up costs for energy companies and weaken their competitive position.
Consolidation
Although demand for wind and solar power remains strong, the wind industry is facing problems such as supply chain disruptions and financial instability among key suppliers. Some major wind turbine manufacturers have already reported significant losses, hampering the financeability of new projects. The solar market, which is facing overcapacity and a sharp price war, is experiencing a similar crisis. For companies operating in these sectors, project delays and narrow margins can increase financial risks.
Whereas developments in the energy sector are worrying some players, others are actually benefiting. Financially stronger companies can take over weaker players to increase market share and efficiency. Consolidation in the sector can help relieve margin pressure and achieve economies of scale. At the same time, investment in innovation and new technologies, such as hydrogen production and energy storage, can help strengthen competitiveness and reduce bankruptcy risks.
Peak of bankruptcies is still to come
- The energy transition requires substantial investments in renewables, smart grids and energy storage technologies. The capital expenditure required for these projects is high, especially at a time when interest rates worldwide first rose and now appear to be falling. It can be challenging for smaller companies to secure financing on acceptable terms, putting pressure on their financial stability. Large players, who previously invested primarily in fossil fuels, are also feeling the pressure to rapidly convert to green technology, which entails significant capital commitments.
- The increased risk of bankruptcies among energy companies is a serious challenge for the sector may have implications for Europe's energy transition. Companies that can withstand the financial and operational pressures of this period are likely to emerge stronger from the crisis.

- For many energy companies, the future is uncertain. Our own research shows that the wave of bankruptcies worldwide (in full) is not yet at its peak. The peak will come in 2025. Thereby, the energy sector is explicitly mentioned as a vulnerable sector. Our research department also warns against possible bankruptcies of larger companies (to big to fail no longer exists).
- We see that invoices are getting paid later and later. This is extremely difficult for many companies. Working capital comes under pressure as a result. Companies put each other in trouble. With the logical consequence that the chance of non-payment and bankruptcy increases. Even healthy companies can be affected. A large unpaid invoice is a nightmare for many business owners.