Europe faces a five-week delay on the vaccination front that, if left uncorrected, could cost close to EUR90bn to the European economy in 2021, acoording to the lastest calculations of Euler Hermes, global leader in trade credit insurance.
Reaching EU Commission’s goal of vaccinating 70% of the adult population by summer 2021 would call for a vaccination pace that is roughly six times higher than currently observed.
Euler Hermes calculations show that EU countries are already five weeks behind schedule. As every week of prolonged sanitary restrictions reduces quarterly nominal EU GDP growth by -0.4pp, the current delay represents the equivalent of -2.0pp or close to EUR90bn.
For Belgium we expect a cost of EUR600 million per additional week of sanitary restrictions.