Half-Time Outlook 2026-27 AI holds the score, growth slows to +2.5%

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Executive Summary:
Yellow card only: As the Middle East conflict de-escalates – despite temporary flare-ups – we expect only a mild slowdown in global growth in 2026 to +2.5%, followed by a rebound to +2.9% in 2027, broadly in line with our previous baseline outlook.
AI is strongly propping up the global economy, offsetting the drag from the energy shock and the trade war. The energy shock is still working through balance sheets, with consumer purchasing power recovering only in Q4 2026 and firms' profitability still exposed.
Has inflation been knocked out? The peak should already be behind us. With oil flows normalizing and crude prices even falling back below pre-war levels, the energy shock should prove short-lived, limiting second-round effects on broader inflation and avoiding a repeat of the 2022 inflation surge.