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Conflict in the Middle East: Implications for markets and macro
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Key highlights:
- On 28 February 2026, US launched Operation Epic Fury alongside Israel, striking Iranian political/military leadership, military infrastructure, and nuclear-related facilities. Iran responded with ballistic missile and drone attacks against Israel and US installations across the Middle East and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.
- Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade transits, is the most critical energy chokepoint in the world. Any disruption to Gulf production or shipping routes rapidly tightens global energy markets.
- Oil prices soared up to a peak of 120 USD/bbl (+67%) before returning to around 90 USD/bbl (+25%). Also, European gas prices so far peaked at 70EUR/Mwh(+119%) before moving towards 50EUR/Mwh (+56%)
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