Ireland's business environment in the second quarter of 2026 presents a broadly resilient but increasingly differentiated picture across sectors. Ireland continues to benefit from strong multinational investment, particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals, while agrifood and construction demonstrate underlying momentum. Cost pressures driven by energy price volatility, Middle East geopolitical disruption and US tariff uncertainty are, however, weighing on margins and investment confidence across a range of industries.

Selective resilience is evident in Agrifood, Computers & Telecoms, Electronics, Energy, Machinery & Equipment, Pharmaceuticals, and Software & IT Services, which continue to demonstrate either stability, low-risk characteristics or positive growth drivers. Across the 11 sectors operating at moderate risk, conditions remain manageable for well-capitalised businesses, though liquidity, cost recovery and counterparty risk warrant close monitoring as headwinds persist into the second half of 2026.

Chris Daker

Chris Daker
Head of Credit Underwriting for Ireland

Sector risk level: 2

Outlook: Ireland's agrifood sector in Q2 2026 remains relatively resilient. It should be noted that the hospitality sector, including pubs and restaurants, is expected to continue experiencing a high proportion of insolvencies for the remainder of 2026. Profitability tightening is anticipated as rising fuel prices and increased processing and transport costs, linked to the Middle East conflict, continue to weigh on margins. Overall, the agrifood sector in Ireland remains broadly stable, with near-term performance dependent on the evolution of cost conditions, demand trends and the broader macroeconomic environment.

Businesses in the agrifood sector should pay close attention to fuel, processing and transport costs, particularly where margins are already tight. Smaller producers, processors and hospitality-linked operators should maintain careful cash-flow forecasting, review supplier terms and monitor customer payment behaviour, as insolvency pressure remains elevated across hospitality.

Sector risk level: 3

Outlook: Ireland has no car manufacturing plants based domestically, so the sector’s scope remains focused on automotive retailing and related activities. For the full year 2025, total new car registrations reached 124,954, a 3% increase compared to 2024 (121,316). Market share by fuel type in 2025 was: Petrol 25.11%, Hybrid 22.48%, Electric Vehicles (EVs) 18.89%, Diesel 17.09%, and Plug-In Hybrid 14.82%. This marks a continued decline in petrol and diesel’s share, while electrified vehicles, including hybrid, plug-in hybrid and full electric, now account for over 56% of the market. The EV market also saw record growth, with 23,601 new electric cars registered in 2025, a 35% increase over 2024. Overall, market trends remain buoyant, supported by lower interest rates and competitive incentives from retailers for both new and used cars, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and cost-of-living challenges.

Businesses exposed to automotive retail should continue to track consumer affordability, finance conditions and the pace of EV adoption. While registrations remain positive, retailers should be mindful of the sector’s reliance on incentives and grants, the added cost burden for consumers switching to electric vehicles, and potential pressure on used-car values as fuel-type preferences continue to shift.

Sector risk level: 3

Outlook: Automotive suppliers represent a small niche subsector in Ireland, mainly made up of tyre repair shops and motor factor-related activities. Prices for raw materials used in tyre and car part manufacturing, such as rubber and steel, may remain volatile, while most companies in the sector continue to operate on slim margins. Strong demand in new car sales should help replenish the pipeline, and the sector is expected to experience moderate growth, supported by the increasing number of vehicles on the road and rising demand for maintenance and repair services. This segment remains more flexible than automotive retailers, although there could still be some room for consolidation in rural towns.

Businesses in this subsector should remain alert to volatility in rubber, steel and imported parts, as many operators have limited margin flexibility. Demand from NCT requirements and the need to keep vehicles roadworthy should remain supportive, but firms should manage stock levels carefully, protect cash flow and monitor local competition, particularly in rural areas where consolidation is still possible.

Sector risk level: 3

Outlook: Profitability in the Irish chemicals sector is expected to decline due to high energy and input costs. Middle East logistics disruptions have limited feedstock availability globally, while raw material volatility from fluctuating oil-linked prices continues to create cost uncertainty and margin pressure. Overall, the chemicals sector in Ireland remains under moderate pressure, with near-term performance dependent on the evolution of input costs, demand trends and the broader macroeconomic environment.

Businesses in the chemicals sector should prioritise margin protection as energy, feedstock and oil-linked raw material costs remain volatile. Operators may need to review pricing mechanisms, supplier resilience and inventory planning, particularly where logistics disruption or constrained feedstock availability could affect production continuity, customer delivery commitments and overall profitability.

Sector risk level: 1

Outlook: The computers & telecoms sector remains low risk, with stable trading conditions and strong underlying performance. The pace of innovation and efficiency-driven technological change continues to require ongoing investment from market participants. Claims and insolvencies remain at low levels, continuing a long-established trend. Despite negative sentiment surrounding job reductions among some global technology companies during 2024 and 2025, Ireland has remained relatively unaffected. Demand for talent within Ireland’s indigenous technology sector remains robust, while major multinational employers, including Intel and Apple, continue to maintain significant operations and investment in the country.

Businesses in this sector should continue investing in innovation, cyber resilience and workforce capability to remain competitive in a fast-moving market. While Ireland remains well positioned as a technology hub, companies should monitor US tariff developments, reshoring initiatives and multinational investment decisions, as any shift in global strategy could affect supply chains, hiring activity and future capital expenditure.

Sector risk level: 3

Outlook: Construction activity continues to strengthen, marking a third successive month of growth supported by sustained new order inflows. The recovery is now broad-based across the sector, with employment also rising. Commercial construction is seeing the strongest growth, while civil engineering activity is at its highest level since 2022. Housing remains the weakest-performing segment, as taxation and rent-cap policies have constrained investment in some areas, although underlying demand remains strong and is expected to support activity over the longer term. Debt levels remain low and overall cash positions are healthy, although parts of the supply chain remain reliant on overdrafts, invoice discounting and trade credit.

Businesses in the construction sector should use the current improvement in activity to strengthen cash positions and reduce reliance on short-term credit. Cost inflation, staff shortages and lengthening delivery times remain key risks, so firms should build flexibility into contracts, stress-test project margins and closely manage exposure to supply-chain partners that are dependent on overdrafts or trade credit. While insolvency levels remain low and sentiment has improved, maintaining financial discipline will be important as the recovery continues.

Sector risk level: 2

Outlook: The Irish electronics sector benefits from a strong foundation of foreign direct investment and a strategic position in high-value activities such as semiconductor manufacturing. However, the sector continues to face a challenging global environment, with ongoing inventory corrections, shifting demand patterns and pressure on profitability across the semiconductor supply chain. Industry-wide restructuring and cost-cutting initiatives, including workforce reductions among major global players, highlight the continued focus on efficiency and margin protection. Despite these headwinds, the sector remains strategically important and well positioned to benefit from long-term technology and innovation trends.

Businesses in the electronics sector should remain vigilant around global semiconductor cycles, tariff exposure and strategic decisions by major multinational players. Inventory corrections, restructuring activity and pressure across global supply chains could quickly affect Irish suppliers, while geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions may create additional uncertainty. Firms should monitor demand signals closely, diversify where possible and maintain strong liquidity buffers to navigate potential market volatility.

Sector risk level: 2

Outlook: Ireland’s high import dependence (approximately 80%) and continued reliance on fossil fuels, particularly gas, leave the energy sector exposed to price volatility. The sector continues to face challenges from geopolitical energy shocks and grid constraints, although state-backed operators such as ESB, EirGrid, GNI and Coillte remain relatively insulated through regulated revenue streams. Oil-exposed operators face the greatest pressure from fluctuations in global energy markets. Overall, the energy sector in Ireland remains broadly stable, with near-term performance influenced by energy prices, infrastructure capacity and the wider geopolitical environment.

Businesses in the energy sector should closely monitor exposure to oil and gas price volatility, particularly where higher costs cannot be passed through quickly to customers. While regulated and state-backed operators remain comparatively well protected, firms with direct fuel exposure should review procurement strategies, customer pricing arrangements and working-capital requirements in the event of further geopolitical disruption or sustained energy price increases.

Sector risk level: 3

Outlook: Ireland’s household equipment sector continues to benefit from a supportive economic backdrop, with GDP growth and strong export performance underpinning broader market activity. Retail sales have softened slightly as higher prices and ongoing cost-of-living pressures continue to weigh on household budgets. Despite this, demand for innovative and energy-efficient appliances remains a key growth driver, supported by changing consumer preferences and sustainability initiatives. The sector is also closely linked to construction activity, which is expected to provide additional support for demand across both appliances and furniture.

Businesses in the household equipment sector should position for demand linked to the recovery in construction activity and the continued shift towards energy-efficient products, while remaining mindful of consumer affordability pressures. Retailers and distributors should manage inventory carefully, focus on value-led and energy-saving propositions, and monitor discretionary spending trends as households continue to balance higher living costs. The sector’s resilience, ongoing innovation and exposure to improving construction activity support a more positive outlook for 2026.

Sector risk level: 2

Outlook: Ireland’s machinery & equipment sector is modest in scale compared to pharmaceuticals or electronics, but benefits from a highly specialised and export-focused profile, particularly in engineering and material handling equipment. The sector serves key industries including logistics, construction and agrifood, with companies such as Combilift and Liebherr demonstrating Ireland’s strength in these areas. While general-purpose machinery is not produced in significant volumes, a strong focus on innovation and quality continues to support growth. The sector maintains stable fundamentals and positive export prospects, although SMEs remain exposed to labour, liquidity and cost pressures, while international trade uncertainty continues to create volatility.

Businesses in the machinery & equipment sector should pay particular attention to tariff exposure, export-market concentration and margin erosion. Export-focused firms may need to review pricing strategies, hedging arrangements and customer contract terms, particularly where tariffs cannot be fully passed on to customers. SMEs should maintain strong cash discipline as labour costs, input price pressures and global trade uncertainty continue to weigh on profitability and investment decisions.

Sector risk level: 3

Outlook: The metals sector in Ireland remains supported by its close links to construction, as well as demand from engineering, manufacturing and agri-business sectors. While the latest Construction PMI continues to indicate expansion, construction activity has moderated slightly from recent highs. The sector is therefore benefiting from ongoing project activity, but faces several headwinds heading into 2025/26, including softer global metal prices, persistent raw material and labour cost pressures, and uncertainty surrounding international trade policies and tariffs. Despite these challenges, the sector has demonstrated resilience and continues to maintain generally stable trading conditions.

Businesses in the metals sector should continue to manage purchasing decisions carefully, particularly if global base-metal prices soften further. While liquidity remains favourable among major steel stockholders and insolvency levels remain low, firms should monitor late payments, avoid overstocking high-priced inventory and assess how much cost inflation can realistically be passed on without weakening customer relationships. Maintaining strong cash conversion and inventory discipline will remain important as market conditions normalise.

Sector risk level: 3

Outlook: Ireland’s paper and packaging sector remains small and highly specialised, with limited upstream capacity and a heavy reliance on imported raw materials. Activity is concentrated in corrugated board, paper-based packaging and niche product processing, with demand largely supported by Ireland’s strong agrifood sector. The paper and paper product manufacturing sector has an estimated market size of approximately €1.0 billion, with around 200 active enterprises operating across segments ranging from paperboard packaging to stationery. While growing demand for sustainable packaging presents opportunities, the sector remains exposed to rising input and energy costs, as well as pressures linked to international trade and export markets.

Businesses in the paper and packaging sector should be alert to imported raw material costs, energy-price pressures and reduced pricing power, particularly among smaller operators. Firms serving export markets should also monitor US tariff-related competitiveness risks, while packaging suppliers linked to agrifood should focus on contract discipline, supplier resilience and their ability to recover input-cost increases without eroding customer relationships.

Sector risk level: 1

Outlook: The pharmaceuticals sector in Ireland remains resilient, supported by a strong presence of multinational manufacturers, including Pfizer and MSD, alongside a growing local segment. Most multinational pharmaceutical companies operating in Ireland are subject to the 15% tariff cap on exports under the EU-US trade agreement, although a small number have secured temporary exemptions linked to specific investment commitments. The sector is also facing some pressure from higher energy and transport costs following recent volatility in global oil and gas markets. However, given the sector’s strong performance and profitability, these cost increases are expected to remain manageable.

Businesses in the pharmaceuticals sector should continue to monitor energy, transport and tariff-related costs, even though the sector remains structurally strong. Multinational operators are generally well positioned to absorb temporary input-cost increases, but smaller and more specialised businesses should review supplier resilience, logistics exposure and working-capital requirements to protect margins and maintain operational continuity.

Sector risk level: 3

Outlook: Ireland’s retail sector continues to face a challenging trading environment, with retail sales volumes declining by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year in April 2026. While the value of retail sales rose by 1.0% over the same period, this reflects modest nominal growth against a backdrop of weak-to-flat real growth and increasing divergence across subsectors. Stronger performance has been seen in Books, Newspapers & Stationery, Food, Beverages & Tobacco (Specialised Stores), Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles, and Bars. The subsectors Clothing, Footwear & Textiles, Fuel, Department Stores and Electrical Goods have recorded notable declines in sales volumes. Overall, consumer spending remains uneven as cost-of-living pressures continue to influence purchasing decisions.

Businesses in the retail sector should prepare for continued pressure on real sales growth, margins and consumer confidence, particularly in clothing, department stores, fuel and electrical goods. Rising energy costs, high rents and labour availability challenges are likely to remain key concerns, while increasing insolvency levels across parts of the sector warrant close attention. Retailers should continue to strengthen online and omnichannel capabilities, manage stock carefully around seasonal demand peaks and maintain tight control of operating costs to protect profitability.

Sector risk level: 1

Outlook: The software & IT services sector remains one of Ireland’s strongest-performing industries, supported by a significant multinational presence and continued investment from global technology companies. Ireland’s position as a leading European technology hub, combined with strong government support for digital innovation, continues to drive demand for software and IT services. The widespread adoption of digital technologies is helping businesses improve efficiency, reduce costs and access new markets, while the digital economy now accounts for approximately 13% of GDP and supports more than 170,000 jobs across information and communications. Overall, the sector remains highly resilient with strong long-term growth fundamentals.

Businesses in this sector should continue to benefit from strong digital adoption and Ireland’s position as a global technology hub, but should not overlook operational risks. Firms should prioritise talent retention, cyber security and service resilience, particularly as skills shortages, housing constraints and increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks have the potential to affect growth, delivery capacity and brand reputation.

Sector risk level: 3

Outlook: Ireland’s textiles sector remains relatively small and highly specialised, following the long-term decline of domestic textile and apparel manufacturing. Most textile products and garments are now imported, while local production is concentrated in small-batch, high-value segments, including traditional crafts and niche products. Despite supportive macroeconomic conditions, including low unemployment and moderating inflation, the sector continues to face pressures linked to its reliance on imports and its exposure to broader retail market trends. Stronger areas of activity include wholesale distribution and premium, sustainable and ethical product segments, while mass-market textile production and low-cost apparel manufacturing remain under pressure.

Businesses in the textiles sector should remain cautious given the close link to retail demand and the sector’s reliance on imports. Firms should monitor consumer spending, freight and input costs, while focusing on stronger niches such as sustainable, ethical and premium products, where pricing power is generally more resilient than in low-cost apparel. Rising retail insolvencies and ongoing cost pressures mean maintaining tight inventory control and careful cash-flow management will remain important throughout 2026.

Sector risk level: 3

Outlook: Ireland’s transport sector continues to operate in a relatively stable environment, supported by ongoing trade flows and economic activity. However, growth remains constrained by weaker external demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The sector also faces persistent cost pressures, including elevated fuel prices, rising carbon taxes and the need for continued investment in lower-emission fleets to meet evolving EU climate requirements. Operational challenges, such as driver shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks, continue to limit capacity and place pressure on profitability. Overall, the transport sector remains under moderate pressure, with performance dependent on the balance between demand conditions and cost inflation.

Businesses in the transport sector should monitor fuel prices, carbon-related costs and driver availability, as these remain the primary sources of pressure on margins. Operators should review fleet investment plans, route efficiency and customer fuel-surcharge mechanisms, while maintaining adequate liquidity buffers to manage infrastructure delays, rising operating costs and potential weakness in external demand.

 

Sector risk level: 3

Outlook: Ireland’s transport equipment sector, which is predominantly made up of aircraft leasing activities, continues to perform well, supported by the ongoing recovery in global aviation markets. Major industry participants are reporting strong profitability and expanding fleet portfolios, reinforcing Ireland’s position as a leading global hub for aircraft leasing. However, the sector continues to face challenges from persistent OEM delivery delays and broader supply chain disruptions, while elevated interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and the transition towards more sustainable aviation continue to shape market conditions. Overall, the sector remains fundamentally strong, although these external pressures warrant ongoing attention.

Businesses in the transport equipment sector, particularly aircraft lessors, should remain alert to OEM delivery delays, interest-rate exposure and geopolitical risks that could affect fleet planning and investment decisions. While aviation demand continues to recover, firms should stress-test financing costs, monitor residual-value assumptions and continue prioritising modern, fuel-efficient assets as sustainability requirements and airline fleet renewal programmes gather momentum.

For more information, visit our global sector research hub.

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