Despite the energy disruption caused by the Middle East conflict and renewed trade tensions, global growth is expected to slow only moderately to +2.5% in 2026 before rebounding to +2.9% in 2027. AI is emerging as the key offsetting force, boosting productivity across advanced economies, supporting semiconductor and data-centre infrastructure investment and sustaining global trade flows. However, this support is increasingly concentrated in a handful of sectors and regions, creating new risks if AI investment momentum weakens.
The UK outlook at a glance
With the Bank of England expected to raise rates to 4.0%, download our latest Economic Outlook to understand what higher rates, persistent cost pressures and elevated credit risks could mean for your business in the months ahead.
Beyond the UK: key 2026 global trends
1. AI cushions the global economy against geopolitical shocks
2. Geopolitical shocks are reshaping growth patterns across regions
The fallout from the Middle East conflict and renewed trade tensions is being felt unevenly around the world. Energy-importing economies remain more exposed to inflation and weaker growth, while AI-led investment and commodity exports are helping cushion the impact elsewhere. This divergence is creating a more fragmented global growth outlook as businesses navigate increasingly regionalised risks.
3. Corporate resilience is fading as profitability comes under pressure
Companies have so far absorbed the impact of higher energy costs and geopolitical disruption, but earnings pressure is building. Revenue expectations have been downgraded across most sectors, financing costs remain elevated and insolvencies are forecast to rise by +4% globally in 2026. The outlook favours sectors linked to AI, technology and data-centre infrastructure, while more leveraged and energy-intensive industries face growing profitability and credit risks.
Want the full global outlook?
Read the report here: Half-Time Outlook 2026-27 AI holds the score, growth slows to +2.5%
You might also be interested in…
-
READ THE ARTICLE
Q3 UK economic outlook: Growth holds, inflation bites
Discover the latest UK economic outlook for Q3 2026, including GDP growth forecasts, inflation trends, interest rates, insolvencies and AI insights.
-
READ THE ARTICLE
How our trade credit insurance powers SME expansion
Discover how Allianz Trade's trade credit insurance helps SMEs protect cash flow, access powerful risk intelligence, enter new markets and grow with confidence.
-
READ THE ARTICLE
July 2026 Ireland Sector Snippets
Explore Allianz Trade's Ireland sector risk outlook for July 2026. Compare risk levels, market trends and business challenges across 18 industries.
Let's talk...
For a free credit insurance consultation call our UK team, 09:00-17:00 Mon-Fri.
Our expertise and commitment
Allianz Trade is the global leader in trade credit insurance and credit management, offering tailored solutions to mitigate the risks associated with bad debt, thereby ensuring the financial stability of businesses. Our products and services help companies with risk management, cash flow management, accounts receivables protection, Surety bonds, Business Fraud Insurance, debt collection processes and e-commerce credit insurance ensuring the financial resilience for our client’s businesses. Our expertise in risk mitigation and finance positions us as trusted advisors, enabling businesses aspiring for global success to expand into international markets with confidence.
Our business is built on supporting relationships between people and organisations, relationships that extend across frontiers of all kinds - geographical, financial, industrial, and more. We’re constantly aware that our work has an impact on the communities we serve and that we have a duty to help and support others. At Allianz Trade, we’re strongly committed to fairness for all without discrimination, among our own people and in our many relationships with those outside our business.