- For corporates, the pressure comes from underperforming GDP growth, higher-for-longer interest rates and energy costs, on top of the larger number of active companies.
- Globally, 2.7 million jobs are directly at risk in 2026 and 2027, meaning a +180,000 increase compared with 2025.
- Business insolvencies are putting 213,000 UK jobs at risk between 2026-2027.
- AI adoption can accelerate business insolvencies in smaller and less diversified markets due to the competitive wedge it creates between early adopters and laggards.
Allianz Trade Insolvency report
London, 27 October 2026
UK insolvencies expected to fall, but remain higher than pre Brexit levels
Allianz Trade has released its latest Insolvency Report, unveiling updated forecasts for 2026, 2027, and the outlook for 2028. According to the world leader in trade credit insurance, global business insolvencies will rise by +5% in 2026 and +1% in 2027 (+6% in 2025), marking five consecutive years of increases. Given the uncertain geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, the peak in insolvencies will be delayed by one year to 2028 (-1%), slightly retreating from very high levels.
In the UK, we expect business insolvencies to continue its gradual stabilisation. Insolvencies should reverse their five-year upward trend in 2026 with a 4% decline to 25,600 cases, followed by a further 3% decrease to approximately 24,800 in 2027. Despite these projected declines, insolvencies would remain above the levels observed before the succession of shocks and challenges that have impacted companies since Brexit. The economy will remain constrained by tighter financial conditions, high inflation and weak supply side, keeping the pressure notably on the sectors that already proved in 2026 to be large contributors to the total count in business insolvencies (construction, real estate, trade, hospitality and accommodation). Business insolvencies would remain 21% above pre pandemic averages in 2027.
Underperforming GDP growth, high energy costs, and higher-for-longer interest rates
Several structural factors explain this persistence. With enduring tensions in the Middle East, GDP growth is expected to underperform compared to the 2023-2025 period1 while energy costs remain high and governments offer limited fiscal support. In parallel, monetary policy is getting tighter, with higher-for-longer interest rates putting further pressure on the most vulnerable companies. At the same time, the stock of active companies expanded by roughly 10% between 2021 and 2025. This broadens the pool of companies exposed to failure, as many of these young entrants are financially fragile: fewer than half of new companies survive beyond five years in Europe.
“With multiple shocks compounding since the start of the year, much higher-than-expected interest rates are ramping up the pressure on already fragile companies and this will continue: 60% of countries will maintain higher policy rates in 2027 than in the prior 12 to 24 months, inflating funding costs and squeezing margins. In Western Europe, a +100bp rise in bank lending rates would add between EUR 6bn and EUR 10bn in interest expenses, reducing margins particularly in renewables, telecom, and power. Meanwhile, higher-for-longer energy costs will also intensify the pressure on profitability, especially for energy-intensive European industries”, explains Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.
More and more jobs at risk, with a new peak in Europe and North America
According to Allianz Trade, roughly 2.7 million jobs are directly at risk in 2026 and 2027. This represents a +180,000 increase compared with 2025, and a +700,000 increase compared with 2023, the first year of the post-Covid rebound in global insolvencies.
“Overall, construction, retail, and services are the most exposed sectors. Europe accounts for almost 60% of jobs at risk (1.6 million) with France, Germany, and the UK leading the way. North America follows, representing 24% of total impacted jobs (650,000). For both regions, this would be a 13-year high. In Asia, the impact is real but more moderate, as the region accounts for only 11% of jobs at risk (305,000)”, adds Maxime Lemerle, Lead Analyst for insolvency research at Allianz Trade.
Is AI already increasing business insolvencies?
Allianz Trade conducted an analysis across eight EU economies2 and nine sectors3 to identify the main drivers of business insolvencies. The findings suggest that macroeconomic conditions and sector specific fundamentals remain the dominant determinants, while AI adoption is not yet correlated with insolvency trends. However, it identifies an exception in smaller and less diversified markets.
“Our research suggests that AI adoption can accelerate business insolvencies in smaller and less diversified markets due to the competitive wedge it creates between early adopters and laggards. In Belgium and Sweden, which have the highest AI adoption rate in our sample (35%), we observe that the most digitized sectors are also those recording the highest insolvency numbers. The same pattern emerges from a sector perspective. Information & Communication, which is the most AI-intensive sector in our sample (70% adoption), shows higher insolvency figures than the national average in five of the eight countries surveyed”, concludes Maxime Lemerle.
1 - 2.6% in 2026, 2.8% in 2027 and 2.6% in 2028 vs 3% in 2025
2 - Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway
3 - Manufacturing, Construction, Trade, Transportation and storage, Accommodation and food services, Information and Communication, Real estate, Professional services, Administrative and support services
Allianz Trade contact
Allianz Trade, UK & Northern Europe
Suzane De Jesus
Suzane.dejesus@allianz-trade.com
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About Allianz Trade
Allianz Trade is the global leader in trade credit insurance and a recognized specialist in the areas of surety, collections, structured trade credit and political risk. Our proprietary intelligence network is based on instant access to data of 545 million corporates. We give companies the confidence to trade by securing their payments. We compensate your company in the event of a bad debt, but more importantly, we help you avoid bad debt in the first place. Whenever we provide trade credit insurance or other finance solutions, our priority is predictive protection. But, when the unexpected arrives, our AA credit rating means we have the resources, backed by Allianz to provide compensation to maintain your business. Headquartered in Paris, Allianz Trade is present in over 40 countries with 5,900 employees. In 2025, our consolidated turnover was €4 billion and insured global business transactions represented €1,400 billion in exposure.