In an increasingly fragmented world, half of global trade receivables face very high or severe risk.
- Allianz Trade’s 2026 Collection Complexity Score stands at a “High” level of 47.2/100.
- Asia Pacific offers one of the most diversified pictures, with markets spanning across the three most complex ratings.
- Saudi Arabia, Mexico and the UAE are the most complex countries to recover commercial debt for exporters.
- USD1.1trn of international trade receivables are in countries with “Very High” or “Severe” risk.
Allianz Trade publishes the fourth edition of its Collection Complexity Score and Rating[1], offering a clear assessment of how easy – or difficult – it is for companies to recover unpaid invoices in 52 economies representing 90% of global GDP and trade. According to the world leader in trade credit insurance, global collection complexity stands at a “High” level of 47.2 out of 100.
Asia Pacific: Indonesia, China and Thailand rated “Severe” in collection complexity while Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea are best performers
With Indonesia (70), China (66) and Thailand (65) among the countries rated “Severe” in collection complexity score, China has shown improvement from the last edition four years ago while the other two have worsened. Meanwhile, exporters in the region are also exposed to international debt collection complexity due to a high share of trade with countries that have high collection complexity. This list is headlined by India, Japan, Vietnam and Thailand. Moreover, as the top three “Next Generation Trade Hubs” identified by Allianz Trade previously, the UAE (71), Vietnam (56) and Malaysia (51) all displayed either a “Severe” or “Very High” rating in collection complexity. This calls for selectivity and close credit management when considering doing more business in these markets.
Global complexity eases slightly, but debt collection remains a major challenge
The Collection Complexity score has four grades: “Notable” (score below 40), “High” (between 40 and 50), “Very High” (50 to 60) and ”Severe” (above 60). The global average is marginally lower than the 2022 edition (49/100) and reflects a narrower distribution of risk: a smaller share of countries now fall under “Severe” (15% vs. 16% in 2022) and “Very High” (21% vs. 29%) categories, while the share of “High” (29% vs. 24%) and “Notable” (35% vs. 31%) categories has increased. Yet, with business insolvencies remaining elevated worldwide and global fragmentation deepening amid shifting trade patterns, volatile protectionism, geopolitical tensions and growing digital risks, debt collection is set to become increasingly complex for corporates, particularly for exporters.
“We estimate that 48% of international trade receivables are in countries at ‘Very High’ (22%) or ‘Severe’ (26%) collection complexity. Compared to 2022, this represents a limited increase (+1pp), but a significant rise in absolute value to USD1.1trn due to expanding global trade. Insolvency proceedings still account for the bulk of collection complexity in all regions. Local payment practices in particular stand out as the main driver of collection complexity in the Middle East, while court-related complexities are less frequent within Western Europe than in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. These structural factors explain why international debt collection remains a difficult process worldwide,” states Fabrice Desnos, member of Allianz Trade’s Board of Management, in charge of Credit Intelligence, Reinsurance, and Surety.
Saudi Arabia, Mexico and the UAE the most complex markets for debt recovery
Considering local payment practices, court proceedings and insolvency frameworks, Allianz Trade finds that Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal are the three easiest countries to recover international debt, while Saudi Arabia, Mexico and the UAE remain the most challenging.
“International debt collection is almost three times more complex in Saudi Arabia than in Germany…but the latter is not without complexities in terms of international collection. In that context, the gap between advanced economies and emerging markets has been gradually reducing over time, notably in Asia, but it remains in place. Most advanced economies have a ‘notable’ level of collection complexity. On average, Middle East and Africa are the top two most complex regions,” explains Pascal Personne, Head of Group Claims and Collections at Allianz Trade.
Doing business in Next Generation Trade Hubs requires selectivity
Amid the structural shifts of the global trading system, new trade hubs are emerging, becoming links in new trading routes, as well as emerging new manufacturing hubs. However, despite their appeal, recovering debt remains a challenge for exporters to those markets, adding to existing country risks.
“In a world divided by geopolitics, protectionism and the effects of climate change, global trade is forging new paths. But emerging ‘Next Generation Trade Hubs’, including the UAE, Vietnam, and Malaysia, display a ‘Severe’ level of collection complexity, with an average score of 62. While these markets are increasingly critical in the current context, this calls for selectivity and close credit management when considering doing more business there,” concludes Maxime Lemerle, Lead Analyst for Insolvency Research at Allianz Trade.
[1] The Allianz Trade Collection Complexity score is a measure of the level of complexity relating to international debt collection procedures within each given country from 0 (least complex) to 100 (most complex). The score combines expert judgment by Allianz Trade's collection specialists worldwide (340), and over 40 objective indicators.
