Despite the conflict in the Middle East, more than 7 companies out of 10 continue to expect positive export growth in 2026.
According to the 2026 Allianz Trade Global Survey, the conflict in the Middle East has not derailed export growth expectations but has reshuffled the risk map after a year of trade war. Taking the pulse of 6,000 companies across 13 markets[1], the survey was conducted in two waves over February and March 2026. It assesses the impact of the conflict on corporates’ expectations for exports, global trade, and supply chains.
Corporates remain confident about export growth but expect a rise in non-payment risk
“The Allianz Trade Global Survey reveals that 75% of exporters continue to expect positive export growth in 2026. The impact of the Middle East conflict seems moderate, even more when compared to the 2025 tariff shock, when expectations dropped by -40pp. Still, this optimism remains fragile and could quickly fade if the conflict drags on. Actually, Vietnamese, American and Spanish companies all lost more than -10pp of confidence due to the conflict, while Chinese corporates lost -9pp. The conflict pushed geopolitical and political risk as the leading threat globally for 65% of companies, overtaking supply chain complexity and concentration (45%), which was the top concern in 2025 amid the trade war. Supply-related issues, such as bankruptcy of suppliers and shortage of inputs, rose to second place (57%). However, less than a quarter of companies are worried about the shockwaves from the conflict on energy and shipping: either corporates are confident about their coping mechanisms or they expect the conflict to be short-lived,” explains Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.
Despite this resilient confidence, the Middle East conflict is tightening trade finance conditions. Payment cycles are lengthening, and the share of corporates paid within 30 days has fallen from 10% to 7% since the start of the conflict, while those waiting beyond 70 days has risen from 15% to 24%. Looking ahead, 43% of companies expect payment terms to deteriorate further (+5pp vs pre-conflict). Non-payment risk has also deteriorated: the share of firms expecting higher risk has risen to 40% (+6pp vs pre-conflict). Pharmaceuticals, construction and computers/telecom are the most exposed sectors, while larger companies face disproportionately longer payment cycles.
Asia Pacific: clear structural beneficiary of global supply chains realignment
With 80% of firms have adjusted their trade and supply chain routes since "Liberation Day" to avoid higher tariffs and geopolitical risk, Asia Pacific (excluding China) has emerged as the clear-cut winner from supply chains realignment due to competitive labor costs, improving logistics infrastructure, deep regional trade integration under RCEP and maturing supplier ecosystems. Vietnam, India, Indonesia and Malaysia are gaining investment flows, while Singapore continues to be the logistical and financial anchor of these value chains. Vietnam stands out as the most proactive economy, showing among the highest readings across virtually every strategic priority, particularly in capturing market share in politically stable regions. China’s appeal has however diminished with only 23% of firms plan on increasing their footprint there (-30pp from 2025).
Against supply-chain shocks, companies go for inventories and diversification
Since the beginning of the trade war in 2025, firms have implemented mitigation strategies to adapt to the new environment. Those with long-supply chains[2] have been the most reactive and notably more prone to source from new suppliers and reroute than the overall sample. The most common coping mechanisms have been inventory building and diversification to new markets (64% each), as well as sourcing from new suppliers (63%) pointing to a broad-based effort to de-risk both demand and supply exposure. This is followed by rerouting through third markets (57%), confirming that firms are also adapting logistics to bypass trade frictions.
“Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, 50% of firms are seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers, especially in Vietnam (60%). The second most popular strategy (50%) is working with customs brokers to expediate clearance, especially in Vietnam (64%) and India (56%). Third is adjusting delivery schedules for 48% of them, mainly in France, Brazil, India, the UK and the US. By contrast, changes to Incoterms (36%) remain more limited, suggesting that contractual adjustments lag operational ones,” states Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research at Allianz Trade.
Europe and Asia emerge as the two leading regions for future growth
The trade war has reduced the attractiveness of the US for exporters: only 13% consider it a growth market. Amid supply-chain reconfiguration and recent FTAs, Europe and Asia are prioritized for future growth, as businesses increasingly look for stability and market openness. Interest in Europe as an export destination has grown across the board with Singaporean (+10pp vs 2025) and US (+9pp vs 2025) exporters showing the strongest increase in appetite. Asia remains the preferred offshore destination overall, though China's investment appeal has collapsed, with only 23% (-30pp from 2025) firms planning to increase their footprint, even if only 10% are actively planning to exit.
“Growth opportunities are being reinforced by a wave of new trade agreements: 93% of firms plan to expand on recently signed FTAs such as India-EU and MERCOSUR-EU, with India, Brazil, Vietnam and France emerging as priority markets. Yet the full potential of these agreements remains constrained: non-tariff barriers, particularly licensing and certification requirements, continue to be the dominant friction limiting firms from converting trade agreement access into actual export growth,” concludes Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.
[1] Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the UAE, the UK, the US and Vietnam
[2] i.e. more than 50% of production abroad
