Three tensions cloud the outlook, but the global economy holds firm
According to Allianz Trade’s latest economic research report, the global economy enters the final quarter of 2026 under the shadow of three tensions that escalated over the summer: a fresh energy shock out of the Middle East, a bond sell-off that has spread from the US to Japan to Europe, and renewed doubts about the AI boom. Yet none of this has broken the real economy: Q2 growth surprised to the upside, carried by net exports, Germany's fiscal stimulus, and robust AI-related investment in the US and Asia.
Global GDP growth is set to slow from +3.0% in 2025 to +2.6% in 2026. The US economy continues to see multi-speed growth, with ICT capex growth expected to peak at around +18% in 2026, while residential investment contracts and consumer spending eases. US GDP is forecast to grow by +2.1% in 2026. Meanwhile, China‘s economy lost momentum in Q2 as the oil shock from the Middle East conflict and persistently soft household spending weighed on activity. Yet the full-year 2026 forecast holds at +4.7%, anchored by robust export performance, while structurally elevated savings rates and depressed consumer confidence remain the primary drag on the domestic economy.
Global trade of goods driven mainly by AI in a divergent global economy
Global trade of goods is forecast to grow by +4% in 2026, driven primarily by AI-related demand that continues to mask a widening divergence across the global economy. While geopolitical tensions, including disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing trade war, are weighing on trade flows, strong AI investment, defense spending and residual momentum are helping sustain growth. However, this support is expected to fade, with global goods trade growth slowing to +2.9% in both 2027 and 2028 as the AI cycle matures, supply chain disruptions persist and tariff-related frictions continue, although new free-trade agreements are expected to provide a modest offset.
AI boom keeps APAC at the forefront of global growth
APAC is set to remain the world's growth engine, with GDP growth forecast at +4.4% in 2026 and around a quarter of that growth driven by the AI investment cycle. Economies deeply embedded into AI supply chains, particularly Taiwan and South Korea, continue to benefit from strong demand for semiconductors and other AI-related inputs, while Vietnam and Malaysia also gain from ongoing supply-chain diversification.
However, growth across the region is increasingly uneven: while Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore derive roughly 60% of their growth from AI-related activity, Indonesia and the Philippines face headwinds from tighter financial conditions, exposure to the Hormuz and food inflation. Meanwhile, US tariffs and weak Chinese domestic demand are contributing to a "China Shock 2.0", as Chinese exports are increasingly redirected to the global south and Europe, reshaping global trade flows and intensifying competitive pressures.
