Trade openness is a structural precondition for AI-driven productivity gains.
AI and trade are no longer separate policy domains. AI growth depends on globalized supply chains for semiconductors, computing infrastructure and digital services while trade is increasingly shaped by who controls AI infrastructure, data flows and cloud capacity.
According to Allianz Trade’s latest research report, export volumes of AI-enabling goods have doubled from USD1.9trn in 2014 to USD3.8trn in 2025, accounting for 15% of global trade and far outpacing the 40% growth in goods trade overall. Asia dominates the supply side, accounting for 65% of global AI-related exports and seven of the top ten exporters, while the US has tripled its AI-related imports since 2023, underpinned by 5,427 operational data centers, good for 45% globally.
An AI boom built in Asia
Over the past decade, global trade in AI-related goods has doubled, far outpacing the growth of overall goods trade and of non-AI-related goods in particular. This expansion has seen three distinct acceleration phases:
- The first acceleration occurred in 2017–2018 (+15% y/y and +11% y/y respectively), driven by fundamental developments in need for AI-related goods and the introduction of the transformative architecture (such as most large language models).
- A second surge followed in 2021 (+30% y/y), driven by the release of early large-scale models, including GPT-3 (2020) and DALL·E (2021) and paving the way for the emergence of generative AI in 2022.
- More recently, advances in multimodal and agentic AI systems have reignited investment momentum. While AI-related goods exports reached new heights in 2025 (+22% y/y), January and February 2026 data show that the boom continues, especially in economies such as Taiwan (+62% y/y) and South Korea (+105% y/y).
Asia has firmly established itself as the center of global trade in AI-enabling goods, led by China (18% share of global trade), Taiwan (12%) and Hong Kong (11%) on the podium, joined by Singapore (7%), South Korea (6%), Malaysia (4%) and Japan (3%) in the top ten. Emerging players include Mexico, which recorded the fastest growth in 2025 at +62% y/y, while Thailand and the Philippines are also expanding as alternative hubs.
The Middle East crisis could send semiconductor prices surging
Over the past two years, two-thirds of the expansion in Asian semiconductor exports were due to price increases and one-third due to higher volumes. Risks of energy shortages from the Middle East crisis could send prices even higher, given the already tight and extremely concentrated supply. Taiwan, for example, operates the biggest foundry worldwide and occupies 70% market share in 2025. In Q1 2026, wafer shipments grew +28% y/y while revenue in USD terms expanded by +40.6%. Apart from a structural shift in product mix, the sustained increase in semiconductor pricing is best understood as a demand-led phenomenon, with supply-side constraints serving as an amplifying mechanism.
The fact that the majority of AI-enabling goods exports are driven by a small group of countries also makes their trade model highly vulnerable to potential shocks. Taiwan and Hong Kong are the most exposed to an AI bubble burst, with 74% and 59% of their exports respectively being related to AI goods. They are followed by Singapore and the Philippines (both at 47%), Malaysia (43%) and South Korea (32%). In contrast, trade in AI-enabling goods accounts for just 15% of US exports, indicating that American exports are relatively well diversified.
AI-related import demand highly concentrated in US and partially Asia
Since 2023, Taiwan and the US have recorded the largest increases in AI-related imports, reflecting their pivotal positions in the AI supply chain: Taiwan through the import of capital equipment for semiconductor manufacturing, and the US through demand linked to its dominance in AI services and data center infrastructure. Since the mass-market deployment of large language models since 2023, the US has tripled its imports of advanced AI-related products, reflecting massive domestic investment in AI and continued reliance on foreign semiconductor supply.
In Asia, beyond Taiwan, the strongest import growth has been seen in South Korea, reflecting its dual role in semiconductor production and consumers of advanced AI components, and Hong Kong, highlighting its important roles in semiconductor production and technology flows into China due to US export controls. Overall, the AI semiconductor market remains highly concentrated geographically: the US being the dominant end market for the most advanced generation of AI semiconductors, the EU and China as the other two large but structurally distinct demand pools.
