Türkiye

Will the shift to orthodox monetary policies last this time?

C4

HIGH RISK for enterprise

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

Last updated in July 2023.

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GDP USD815.27bn (World ranking 19, World Bank 2021)
Population 85.04mn (World ranking 17, World Bank 2021)
Form of state Presidential Republic
Head of government Recep Tayyip ERDOGAN (President)
Next elections 2024, local elections
  • Important geostrategic position (that has historically always ensured aid when needed)
  • Adequate business environment (though deteriorating)
  • Potential as regional hub between Europe, MENA and Asia
  • Exchange rate vulnerability to domestic and external shocks
  • Economic policy responsiveness
  • History of persistently large current account deficits, largely financed through short-term external debt, which has risen to a very high level in the meantime
  • (External) debt refinancing risk of weaker companies and banks
  • Deep-rooted division in society between secularists and religious conservatives
  • Geopolitical risks

Trade structure by destination/origin

(% of total, 2021)

Exports Rank Imports
Germany 8.6%
1
11.9% China
United States 6.5%
2
10.7% Russian Federation
United Kingdom 6.1%
3
8.0% Germany
Italy 5.1%
4
4.8% United States
Iraq 4.9%
5
4.3% Italy

Trade structure by product

(% of total, 2021)

Exports Rank Imports
Road vehicles 10.8%
1
6.4% Iron and steel
Iron and steel 8.4%
2
5.6% Road vehicles
Articles of apparel & clothing accessories 8.3%
3
5.3% Metalliferous ores and metal scrap
Textile yarn and related products 6.7%
4
5.2% Plastics in primary forms
Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s. 5.9%
5
4.8% Non-ferrous metals
The Allianz Trade Collection Complexity Score provides a simple assessment of how easy it is to collect debt around the world. The 2022 edition covers 49 countries that represent nearly 90% of global GDP and 85% of global trade.
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