Netherlands

The Wilders’ Party for Freedom surprised by winning the November 2023 election, obtaining 37 seats (out of 150 seats). However, negotiations for cabinet formation collapsed throughout the process, finally resulting in the formation of the Schoof cabinet in July 2024, comprising the PVV, the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), New Social Contract (NSC) and the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB). Political fragmentation means the government remains fragile and will face challenges in its term.

Migration and housing were the key themes of the electoral campaign and are key priorities of the new government. It has already announced the strictest asylum policy ever, with the aim of reducing or capping the number of migrants allowed in the country per year – including asylum seekers, labor migrants and students. Strictly connected to new arrivals, the structural lack of housing has also re-emerged as a hot topic, given the further push to demand.

In addition, the new government has scaled back climate ambitions; the 2030 target for the reduction of emissions has remained at 55% (compared to 1990 levels), although this no longer is a minimum reduction, and the extra buffer will be skipped. Notably, the Netherlands is an extensive agricultural exporter (second only to the US). This coupled with a dense population and heavy traffic leads to large nitrogen emissions.

Moreover, the Netherlands' growing reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US has led to a sharp increase in the climate impact of its natural gas consumption. Although the US now supplies 27% of the gas used in the Netherlands, it is responsible for 66% of the total greenhouse gases emitted during gas extraction and transport.

The Netherlands is set to receive EUR5.4bn in grants (0.5% of GDP) from the NGEU funds. The Netherlands did not apply for EU loans as their cost of borrowing remains low. The Dutch plan is structured around six pillars: promoting the green transition; accelerating the digital transformation; improving the housing market, with a focus on building renovation; strengthening the labor market, pensions and future-oriented education; strengthening the public health sector and pandemic preparedness and tackling aggressive tax planning and money laundering.