Romania

Romania has been a strong performer among emerging economies, though periods of economic overheating have caused concern at times. Average annual real GDP growth was +3.7% over the past 20 years, well above the respective average of the Central and Eastern European EU member states. The global Covid-19 crisis affected the Romanian economy markedly in 2020 (-3.7% contraction), but it rebounded strongly with a +5.7% output increase in 2021. However, Romania’s economic prospects have significantly deteriorated since the war in Ukraine. This is due to the country’s (pre-war) energy import-dependence on Russia and the impact of EU sanctions against Russia on the domestic economy (for example increased inflation and potential energy shortages). In 2022, economic activity in Romania still held up better than initially expected, thanks to robust consumer spending, investment and external demand. Statistical base effects also helped to achieve growth of +4.1% annually. However, the impact of surging inflation, rising interest rates, weakening external demand and deteriorating business confidence took full effect thereafter. As both domestic and external demand slowed down markedly, real GDP grew by just +2.1% in 2023 and +1.4% y/y in the first half of 2024. Going forward, growth is forecast to pick up gradually, supported by resilient public spending and investment as well as strengthening consumer spending on the back of rising real disposable income, a fading impact of past interest rate hikes and some monetary easing. We forecast full-year growth of around +1.8% in 2024 and slightly more than +3% in 2025-2026.

Monetary policy by the National Bank of Romania (NBR, the central bank) is officially based on inflation targeting (2.5% ± 1pp) but has been loose for a long time. The real interest rate was negative from end-2017 to October 2023, i.e. the key policy interest rate was below the inflation rate, even when the latter was above the target range for most of 2018-2019 amid rapid double-digit wage growth and again since mid-2021 amid rising energy prices. The latter drove consumer price inflation into double digits from early 2022 until mid-2023. The NBR hiked its policy rate moderately from 1.25% in September 2021 to 7.00% in January 2023. It has also frequently intervened in foreign exchange (FX) markets to prevent excessive currency volatility – not surprising as the official exchange rate regime is that of a managed float – thereby maintaining the exchange rate of the RON stable against the EUR. We expect it to continue to do so as long it has sufficient FX reserves. Meanwhile, inflation is forecast to remain stickier than in neighboring countries on the back of hikes in food prices, strong wage growth and loose fiscal policies. We forecast headline inflation to average approximately 5.7% in 2024 and 4% over 2025-2026.

The business environment is generally adequate though spots of weaknesses remain. The World Bank Institute’s annual Worldwide Governance Indicators surveys suggest that the regulatory and legal frameworks are generally business-friendly while weaknesses remain with regard to perceived corruption. The Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom survey 2024 assigns Romania rank 51 out more than 180 economies, reflecting strong scores with regard to property rights, tax burden, trade freedom and investment freedom. However, weaknesses remain in the areas of government integrity and financial freedom. In our proprietary Environmental Sustainability Index, Romania ranks 54th out of 210 economies, reflecting strong scores for energy use and CO2 emissions per GDP, water stress. Yet, there are still weaknesses in renewable-electricity output and the recycling rate, as well as its exposure to climate events and its readiness to protect itself against such events.

Overall systemic political risk is moderate. Romania is a democracy with good international relations. It is a member of the EU and NATO and an OECD accession candidate. However, government instability and frequent anti-government protests have been a concern. Nevertheless, Romania's two main rival parties – the center-right PNL and the center-left PSD – have governed as a grand coalition for the past four years. They are likely to continue this coalition after the upcoming parliamentary elections at the end of 2024. We would expect it to struggle to reduce the fiscal deficit, risking a delay in EU funding under the NGEU.