After the grand reopening of the economy, growth momentum softened over the summer amid the spread of the more contagious Delta variant. But with greater vaccination coverage allowing for lighter restrictions, we still expect global growth to remain strong in 2021 and 2022, even if the recovery will be uneven.

Our Economic Research Department has drawn data from our extensive global intelligence network to generate the following insights and forecasts, which show the predicted strength of the recovery.

  • +5.5% Predicted growth in global GDP for 2021.
  • +8.0% Forecast global increase in trade flow volumes in 2021.
  • 40% Proportion of pandemic losses businesses are expected to recoup on average in one year, if further lockdowns are avoided
  • +2% to 3% of GDP Predicted increase in global domestic consumption in 2021.
  • EUR500bn in Europe and USD1trn in the US Excess savings accrued during the pandemic.
  • 33% to 40% of global private consumption in 2021 to be spent on goods and services that individuals could not access during the pandemic.
  • 60% to 67% of households’ pandemic savings to be spent on financial investments, the housing market or saved.
  • +16.9% Forecast for growth in global trade in 2021 in value terms amid a global race for inputs and shipping constraints.
  • 52% Percentage of businesses hedging against a significant increase in supply chain risks by shortening supply chains, stockpiling and using trade credit insurance.

The global recovery is likely to be uneven. Growth rates will depend on a wide range of factors including sector, geography, supply chain models and most importantly the successful containment of the Covid-19 virus. 

To find out more, download our ebook: Taking the Leap: how to mitigate risk and grow sustainably post-pandemic.