The Labor Force Survey (LFS) demonstrated more than its usual volatility, reporting that the economy lost -51,600 jobs in August after having gained +54,100 jobs in July, with Ontario losing -80,100 jobs after having gained +60,600 jobs in July. The y/y rate of job growth is more stable but fell to only +0.9%, the slowest in two years. Losses were widespread with only six of 16 industries growing. Construction lost -16,400 jobs, the fourth loss in five months, perhaps reflecting the stumbling housing market, while manufacturing lost -9,200 jobs, which was a disturbing seventh consecutive month of decline, likely caused by tariffs and soft auto sales. Wage growth fell to +2.9% y/y; it had been +3.9% just three months earlier. Given that the LFS has been so volatile recently, it’s unlikely that the Bank of Canada will be dissuaded by this report from hiking in October.
