The last quarter of the year is traditionally depicted as a sprint with an intense period of economic activity in most of sectors and regions. However, as the second wave of Covid-19 strikes many countries around the world and imposes new lockdowns in many European countries, this threatens the fragile economic recovery foreseen for this quarter. Amidst this intense uncertainty, I wanted to reiterate that helping you navigate through the ever-changing landscape is literally at the heart of everything we do. As every day or week goes by, we continue reinforcing our dedication to you in terms of support, adequate credit risk transfer, advice and market and economic intelligence.
Starting again last week, most of Euler Hermes employees are working remotely with no disruption in any of our services. The commitment I took last March was upheld: no matter the situation, we remain fully available and reachable; in fact, we have taken our customer care even further with more robust services and support. We also set into place new technologies to be by your side more confidently and steadily through these unpredictable hardships. I cannot thank you enough for your enduring trust.
A crucial part of our societal role also lies in our predictive intelligence; more than ever, our economic experts have reinforced their predictive outlooks with frequent and in-depth sectorial and regional market intelligence as the global situation evolves. I invite you to read our latest economic insights and be convinced by yourself.
We predict that pre-crisis recovery will not happen before Q4 2022; this entails a jump of 31% in insolvency rates by the end of 2021, with 20% of short-work schemes workers unemployed; accordingly, we believe that nature or risk is changing. Aspects such as the adoption of ESG standards, digitisation, and social and sanitary conditions play a role as necessary as commercial and financial factors in making companies more resilient towards unexpected shocks.
This second confinement, happening across many countries, is a hard blow, and it is severely hitting the smaller to mid-size businesses. Keeping a long term vision is difficult in these circumstances, for any business leader. Priority must be on securing financial positions as much as possible, but also continuing to nurture growth projects. The latter is key in ensuring competitiveness in the post-pandemic world. As a 120-year-old business, we at Euler Hermes believe that decrypting the next normal and anticipating the next turn is crucial to survival. This is why we are expediting our digital transformation: to enable you to capture the full scope of changing risks and act early to defuse some of the impacts of this global crisis.
Towards all our clients, I cannot insist enough: throughout the uncertainty, our dedication to secure confidence in tomorrow is our goal, and the value we deliver to you will warrant your trust in us. No matter what, we will be first by your side.
Sincerely yours
Wilfried Verstraete
CEO and Chairman of the Board of Management
