Allianz Trade Global Survey

Corporates remain confident about export growth but expect a rise in non-payment risk

“The Allianz Trade Global Survey reveals that 75% of exporters continue to expect positive export growth in 2026. The impact of the Middle East conflict seems moderate, even more when compared to the 2025 tariff shock, when expectations dropped by -40pp. Still, this optimism remains fragile and could quickly fade if the conflict drags on. Actually, Vietnamese, American, and Spanish companies all lost more than -10pp of confidence due to the conflict, while Chinese corporates lost -9pp. The conflict pushed geopolitical and political risk as the leading threat globally for 65% of companies, overtaking supply chain complexity and concentration (45%), which was the top concern in 2025 amid the trade war. Supply-related issues, such as bankruptcy of supply and shortage of inputs, rose to second place (57%). However, less than a quarter of companies are worried about the shockwaves from the conflict on energy and shipping: either corporates are confident about their coping mechanisms, or they expect the conflict to be short-lived”, explains Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.

Despite this resilient confidence, the Middle East conflict is tightening trade finance conditions. Payment cycles are lengthening, and the share of corporates paid within 30 days has fallen from 10% to 7% since the start of the conflict, while those waiting beyond 70 days has risen from 15% to 24%. Looking ahead, 43% of companies expect payment terms to deteriorate further (+5pp vs pre-conflict). Non-payment risk has also deteriorated: the share of firms expecting higher risk has risen to 40% (+6pp vs pre-conflict). Pharmaceuticals, construction and computers/telecom are the most exposed sectors, while larger companies face disproportionately longer payment cycles.

Against supply-chain shocks, companies go for inventories and diversification

Since the beginning of the trade war in 2025, firms have implemented mitigation strategies to adapt to the new environment. Those with long-supply chains have been the most reactive and notably more prone to source from new suppliers and reroute than the overall sample. The most common coping mechanisms have been inventory building and diversification to new markets (64% each), as well as sourcing from new suppliers (63%) pointing to a broad-based effort to de-risk both demand and supply exposure. This is followed by rerouting through third markets (57%), confirming that firms are also adapting logistics to bypass trade frictions.

“Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, 50% of firms are seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers, especially in Vietnam (60%). The second most popular strategy (50%) is working with customs brokers to expediate clearance, especially in Vietnam (64%) and India (56%). Third is adjusting delivery schedules for 48% of them, mainly in France, Brazil, India, UK and US. By contrast, changes to Incoterms (36%) remain more limited, suggesting that contractual adjustments lag operational ones”, states Ano Kuhanathan, Head of corporate research at Allianz Trade.

Moreover, the Middle East crisis has not jeopardized companies’ outlook for global reshoring: 72% of exporters expect to at least continue at the same pace. Nevertheless, the main constraints to reshoring remain concentrated in supplier-related issues such as lack of access or high quality domestic suppliers (around 83%) followed by production costs (67%) and lack of tax incentives or subsidies (61%). More complex supply chains are forcing firms to put resilience at the core of their investment strategies, prioritizing market consolidation, new trade routes and facility-building abroad.

Europe and Asia emerge as the two leading regions for future growth

The trade war has reduced the attractiveness of the US for exporters: only 13% consider it a growth market. Amid supply-chain reconfiguration and recent FTAs, Europe and Asia are prioritized for future growth, as businesses increasingly look for stability and market openness. Interest in Europe as an export destination has grown across the board with Singaporean (+10pp vs 2025) and US (+9pp vs 2025) exporters showing the strongest increase in appetite. Asia remains the preferred offshore destination overall, though China's investment appeal has collapsed, with only 23% (-30pp from 2025) firms planning to increase their footprint, even if only 10% are actively planning to exit.

“Growth opportunities are being reinforced by a wave of new trade agreements: 93% of firms plan to expand on recently signed FTAs such as India-EU and MERCOSUR-EU, with India, Brazil, Vietnam and France emerging as priority markets. Yet the full potential of these agreements remains constrained: non-tariff barriers, particularly licensing and certification requirements, continue to be the dominant friction limiting firms from converting trade agreement access into actual export growth”, ends Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.

Check out our full report to find out how corporates feel about…

• US tariffs: 80% of corporates have adjusted their trade and supply-chain routes since “Liberation Day” and 43% of companies still expect a net negative impact in 2026.
• Investment priorities vs a cost-cutting approach: The Middle East-driven input price spike is still being treated as transitory rather than structural.
• FX management and financing: Forecasting and risk-management, financial hedging and matching payments and receipts remain the top three strategies to maintain resilience amid the Middle East shock.
• Sustainability: Commitment to sustainability actions fell by -21pp across the board, but remained more resilient in Europe.
• AI adoption: Emerging economies lead the way, but ROI remains the main hurdle and the conflict is already weighing on optimism.