The October employment report was a mixed bag. Of course, the big non-farm payroll gains grabbed the headlines, and you can’t argue that it wasn’t good, but there were some other important details.
On the positive side:
· The economy created 261k jobs, exceeding expectations of 205k, and gains were widespread across industries.
· Gains for the prior two months were revised upwards by a total of 29k.
On the negative side:
· It was the least amount of job gains in the post-pandemic era, which is since December 2020.
· The y/y growth rate of job gains fell sharply to +3.6% from +3.9% last month and +4.7% in December 2021.
· The unemployment rate rose from +0.2% to +3.7%.
· The labor force participation rate slipped from -0.1% to 62.2%. It’s been hovering stubbornly between 62.2% and 64.4% all year.
· In the household survey, the number of unemployed people rose by +306k and the number of employed people fell by -328k, just the opposite of the
Establishment survey’s 261k.