Employment Report: U.S. Escapes Omicron, but Canada does not
Let’s take a closer look at the January employment report.
As previously noted, the economy added an incredible 467,000 jobs in January, far above estimates of 150,000. Recently, the White House along with several analysts, suggested the number could have even been negative because of Omicron. In addition, the February 2nd ADP report showed a shocking drop of 301,000 jobs. Something feels amiss here.
Employment Report "It’s Like Déjà Vu All Over Again"
There was an American baseball player named Yogi Berra who was famous for his witty statements which were either self-contradictory or redundant. One of them was “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” That’s the case with the December employment report compared to the November report in many ways.
Economic Update: Good News in General, Concerns on Inflation
There is a lot of good news. The high-frequency indicators are showing a rebound in Q4. The October employment report was very strong, and very good news. But we still have a long way to go in the labor market, and the supply/demand imbalance is clearly driving wage inflation which is showing up in many measures
Overall, the US economy is still in very good shape – despite the mixed news. We expect strong growth for the rest of this year into next year. However, will the combination of recent inflation, the Delta variant, and slowing vaccinations knock the forecast down some?
Jobs: Sharp Downward Revisions In The US, An Outright Plunge In Canada
The economy created +49k jobs in January, right around expectations. However the report was not nearly as strong as it looked. The employment situation in Canada took quite a grim turn for the worse, losing a huge -213k jobs in January.