Despite intense trade tensions and multiple layers of risks, Allianz Trade upgrades 36 country risk ratings for only 14 downgrades.

• According to Allianz Trade, global country risk improved in 2025, with almost twice as many country risk ratings upgraded than downgraded.
• Nevertheless, some key economies such as France, Belgium and the US were downgraded, implying persistent and significant mid-term risks for corporates.
• The report found that the US economy is expected to accelerate in 2026 as policy uncertainty eases, macroeconomic loosening gains traction and AI capex continues to power ahead.

Allianz Trade publishes its third Country Risk Atlas, a flagship publication that assesses the economic outlook, risks, and opportunities across 83 countries, representing approximately 94% of global GDP. It is based on a proprietary risk ratings model that is updated every quarter with the latest economic developments and Allianz Trade’s proprietary data.

“Our ratings provide comprehensive analysis and insights into the economic, political and business environment, as well as sustainability factors that influence trends in non-payment risk for companies at a macroeconomic level. Each rating combines 17 short-term and 18 medium-term indicators, and serves decision-makers as a pragmatic compass in a polycrisis world, helping to navigate volatility, protect cash flows and turn risk awareness into a competitive advantage”, explains Luca Moneta, Senior Economist for Emerging Markets at Allianz Trade.

US downgraded, but economic acceleration expected in 2026

Allianz Trade’s country risk assessment finds that the US now stands at an A1 level of overall risk, meaning that there is a low risk for enterprise. This is a change from last year’s assessment, which found the US risk rating to be AA1 due to lower macroeconomic risk, political risk and structural business environment. The US is facing weak and worsening public finances in addition to elevated current account deficits and an appreciated real exchange rate. The US economy is expected to accelerate in 2026 as policy uncertainty eases, macroeconomic loosening gains traction and AI capex continues to power ahead.

Against expectations, global country risk improved in 2025

Despite a year marked by intense trade tensions and multiple layers of risk (political, geopolitical and fiscal), Allianz Trade finds that global country risk improved in 2025, with 36 country risk ratings upgraded for only 14 downgraded. This trend underscores the fiscal, monetary and trade-related coping mechanisms that tend to emerge in times of high uncertainty. The 36 economies with improved ratings include Argentina, Ecuador, Hungary, Italy, Spain, Türkiye and Vietnam.

“In 2025, the upgrades were driven primarily by stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, supported by more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies. In several emerging markets, better financing conditions, appreciating local currencies, and higher commodity prices allowed for a rollback of transfer and convertibility restrictions, a key dimension of political risk. Among high-income economies, improved political stability, disinflation and stronger trade performance reinforced resilience across Europe (notably Germany, Greece, Italy and Spain) and the Asia-Pacific region (including South Korea and Vietnam)”, states Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.

Broad improvements masking persistent medium-term risks for corporates

While the number of downgrades may seem low, it is important to note that it has almost tripled compared to 2024 (from 5 to 14). Furthermore, some key economies like France, Belgium and the US are part of the list, highlighting persistent medium-term headwinds for corporates.

“Resilience broadens, but risk clusters persist in important economies. For instance, last year, we saw a deterioration in the medium-term macroeconomic environment in 7 markets, compared with 18 that improved. However, these deteriorations include Belgium, Brazil, France and the US, which together account for about one-third of global GDP, meaning ten times as much as the economies that saw an improvement. The global economy is undergoing one of its most turbulent periods in decades, with a convergence of shocks and structural shifts such as AI, demographics, climate change, trade, and regulation. Uncertainty remains elevated, and corporates must go for a selective, country-by-country approach so they can expand their business while safeguarding their assets. This underlines the need for granular, forward-looking risk management that goes beyond headline ratings. Continuous monitoring of transfer and convertibility conditions, fiscal trajectories, and trade exposures will be essential to anticipate turning points”, ends Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.