End of recession in 2023 but medium-term outlook remains gloomy

D4

HIGH RISK for enterprise

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

Last updated in July 2023.

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GDP
USD1776bn (World ranking 11, World Bank 2021)
Population
143.4mn (World ranking 9, World Bank 2021)
Form of state Federation
Head of government Vladimir Vladimirovich PUTIN (President)
Next elections 2024, Presidential
  • Abundant natural resources, in particular oil and gas
  • More than 20 years of continued current account surpluses (including the crisis years 2009, 2015-2016 and 2020)
  • Low public debt
  • Geopolitical risks: Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, followed by ongoing severe armed conflict between the two countries. As a result, substantially intensified dispute with the West, including extensive sanctions and counter-sanctions
  • Far-reaching structural reforms still outstanding
  • High vulnerability to global oil price shocks
  • Prone to capital flight
  • Exchange rate remains vulnerable to volatility and sudden depreciation
  • Poor rule of law and high level of perceived corruption

Trade structure by destination/origin

(% of total, annual 2021)

Exports Rank Imports
China 13.6%
1
24.7% China
Netherlands 8.4%
2
10.5% Germany
Germany 5.9%
3
6.1% Belarus
Türkiye 5.3%
4
4.2% United States
Belarus 4.5%
5
4.0% Korea, Republic of

Trade structure by product

(% of total, annual 2021)

Exports Rank Imports
Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials 45.4%
1
9.5% Road vehicles
Iron and steel 7.2%
2
7.1% Other industrial machinery and parts
Non-ferrous metals 6.1%
3
6.8% Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s.
Gas, natural and manufactured 5.0%
4
4.9% Telecommunication and sound recording apparatus
Coal, coke and briquettes 4.3%
5
4.7% Specialised machinery
The Allianz Trade Collection Complexity Score provides a simple assessment of how easy it is to collect debt around the world. The 2022 edition covers 49 countries that represent nearly 90% of global GDP and 85% of global trade.
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