A difficult and slow recovery

B1

LOW RISK for entreprise

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

Last updated in July 2021.

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GDP USD2623bn (World ranking 6, World Bank 2020)
Population 1380mn (World ranking 2, World Bank 2020)
Form of state Federal Republic
Head of government Narendra Modi (PM)
Next elections 2022, presidential
  • Stable democracy, with peaceful changes of government
  • Large internal market, providing some insulation from global business cycle
  • Successful diversification into manufacturing (motor vehicles) and services (including call centres, IT and biotechnology)
  • High annual GDP growth
  • Low external debt relative to earnings and repayment capacity
  • Strong foreign exchange reserves
  • Growing financial risk, with deterioration of balance sheets for banks and non-bank financial institutions amid the Covid-19 crisis.
  • The Kashmir region remains volatile and a source of potential conflict. India-China relations have also deteriorated recently due to border disputes.
  • The political system tends to engender coalition governments that lack the ability to push through economic reforms. Political opposition and nationwide protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act emerged in late 2019, and have dissipated for now amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
  • Poverty remains pervasive and income distribution uneven.
  • Structural weaknesses include inadequate infrastructure, current and fiscal account deficits and state involvement that crowds out private sector initiatives in some sectors.
  • Weak structural business environment (though improving)
  • Vulnerable to natural disasters (including tsunamis, droughts, floods and earthquakes).

Trade structure by destination/origin

(% of total, 2020)

Exports Rank Imports
United States 17.9%
1
17.3% China
China 6.9%
2
7.5% United States
United Arab Emirates 6.5%
3
6.5% United Arab Emirates
Hong-Kong, China 3.5%
4
4.8% Saudi Arabia
Singapore 3.0%
5
4.4% Iraq

Trade structure by product

(% of total, 2020)

Exports Rank Imports
Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials 9.7%
1
19.5% Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials
Non metallic mineral manufactures, n.e.s. 7.4%
2
6.4% Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s.
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products 7.3%
3
5.7% Gold, non-monetary (excluding gold ores and concentrates)
Organic chemicals 5.8%
4
5.2% Office machines and automatic data processing machines
Textile yarn and related products 5.5%
5
5.1% Non metallic mineral manufactures, n.e.s.
The Allianz Trade Collection Complexity Score provides a simple assessment of how easy it is to collect debt around the world. The 2022 edition covers 49 countries that represent nearly 90% of global GDP and 85% of global trade.
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