A short-term path to recovery, medium-term challenges persist

BB2

MEDIUM RISK for enterprise

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

Updated in July 2021.

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GDP USD1293.04bn (World ranking 15, World Bank 2021)
Population 130.26mn (World ranking 10, World Bank 2021)
Form of state Federal Republic
Head of government Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (President)
Next elections 2024, General Election
  • Sound macro-policy framework: fiscal spending is capped and pro-active inflation-targeting central bank
  • Moderate debt ratios and strong external position (manageable current account deficit, large FX reserves)
  • Strong legacy from pro-business reforms in the last decade
  • Structural business environment exceeds Latin American average
  • Durable political framework with stable handovers of power
  • Member of OECD
  • Easy access to capital markets
  • Support from IFIs likely if needed
  • Financial integration means market volatility is driven by both domestic (more or less pro-business stance) and external (US) policy risk. Trade uncertainty dissipated but doubts over the implementation of NAFTA remain
  • Fiscal position highly sensitive to oil price (oil = 30% of public revenues)
  • Sensitive to US business cycle (around 80% of exports)
  • Skewed income distribution (geographically as well as among socio-economic groups), still high poverty levels
  • Security issues related to drug-trafficking
  • Rule of Law and control of corruption below Latin America’s average

Trade structure by destination/origin

(% of total, 2021)

Exports Rank Imports
United States 78.1%
1
43.7% United States
Canada 2.6%
2
19.9% China
China 1.8%
3
3.7% Korea, Republic of
Taiwan 1.5%
4
3.4% Germany
Germany 1.5%
5
3.4% Japan

Trade structure by product

(% of total, 2021)

Exports Rank Imports
Road vehicles 22.6%
1
14.3% Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s.
Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s. 10.8%
2
7.4% Road vehicles
Office machines and automatic data processing machines 7.7%
3
6.0% Office machines and automatic data processing machines
Telecommunication and sound recording apparatus 6.2%
4
5.5% Other industrial machinery and parts
Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials 5.5%
5
5.1% Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials
The Allianz Trade Collection Complexity Score provides a simple assessment of how easy it is to collect debt around the world. The 2022 edition covers 49 countries that represent nearly 90% of global GDP and 85% of global trade.
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