Retail sales disappointed in June, growing only 0.2% m/m compared to expectations of 0.5%. The data from the Census Bureau showed that there were strong gains in e-commerce sales and losses in gasoline.
For overall retail sales, the year-over-year rate peaked in June 2022 at 10.3% and is now only at 1.5%, a fraction of the long-term average of 6%. Consumers are slowing.
Manufacturing industrial production also slid, dropping -0.3% m/m. Given shrinking industrial production and other factors, it's fair to say that manufacturing is in recession.
Read more about retail, manufacturing, and the Federal Reserve's next meeting in our Chief Economist's latest report:
