Low Risk for Enterprise
Denmark
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Economic risk
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Business environment risk
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Political risk
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Commercial risk
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Financing risk
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Economic risk
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Business environment risk
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Political risk
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Commercial risk
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Financing risk
Economic Overview
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Cyclical risks
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Financing risks
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Structural business environment risks
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Political risks
The Danish economy has experienced robust growth in recent years, with overall economic activity increasing by about 11% since 2021. More than half of this growth has been driven by the pharmaceutical sector, which has boosted Danish industrial production and exports, accounting for a quarter of total turnover in the industrial sector. However, a large and growing proportion of pharmaceutical production takes place outside Denmark, primarily in the US, accounting for almost all of the growth in goods exports in recent years. This insulates Denmark relatively well against the effects of the recent trade war, given that a significant proportion of production occurs locally. However, as production has slowed in recent quarters, exports grew significantly less in 2025 as a whole compared to previous years. Consumer spending has increased due to positive real wage growth and a tight labor market, significantly enhancing household purchasing power. Insolvencies are set to fall further in the coming years, by -1.2% in 2026 and -4% in 2027. We anticipate growth rates of +2.0% in 2026 and +2.1% in 2027.
Danish consumer prices have fluctuated considerably in recent years. Although price increases for energy and goods have moderated, inflation in the services sector remains high due to wage pressures. In July and September 2025, consumer price inflation stood at 2.3%, the highest level recorded since mid-2023. The main driver is food products. Over the past year, the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages has increased by 6.5%. To ease food price inflation, the government is planning tax cuts on coffee and chocolate, due to take effect in 2026. The same applies to electricity prices. In 2026, inflation is expected to slow to around 1.7% as the tax cuts will temporarily curb price increases. It is then expected to rise again to 1.8% in 2027.
Employment has grown by nearly 10% since early 2020. While this growth has primarily been driven by the private sector, particularly the pharmaceutical industry, it has also been supported by an increasing number of public-sector employees. If the pharmaceutical industry slows down, overall job growth could become more subdued in the coming years. In line with this, the number of job vacancies has declined since the beginning of the year, and hiring plans, particularly in retail, have become more cautious. Overall, the rapid increase in employment seen in recent years is starting to level off but without a significant impact on unemployment, which is expected to remain at around 3% over the next few years. The wage gap is also closing. At the start of 2025, new three-year collective agreements were reached in the private sector, leading to annual wage increases of approximately 3%.
Since 2019, Denmark has had the highest public budget surplus of any EU country. In 2024, the government achieved a surplus equivalent to 4.5% of GDP, the highest level since 2007. Government revenues have been bolstered by a significant rise in income tax receipts, driven by robust employment growth. Under current policies, the surplus is expected to decrease to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027, primarily due to the operation of automatic stabilizers. The long period of large surpluses has led gross public debt to drop below 30% of GDP. Alongside substantial deposits in the government's account with the Danish central bank, this provides significant fiscal policy flexibility. The government has announced further investments to strengthen Denmark’s defense capabilities. Gross debt levels are projected to decrease to 28.9% in 2026 and 28.2% in 2027.
Danish households remain among the most indebted in the world, with debt levels exceeding 200–250% of disposable income over the past decade. The gross debt-to-income ratio reached a record high of 254.6% in 2014 and a record low of 129.7% in 1995. By 2024, this ratio had fallen to 168.6%, while the debt-to-GDP ratio had decreased slightly from 88% to 85.8%. This is largely due to substantial mortgage loans, although high net worth and robust pension savings provide balance, leaving many families with net assets. This is also reflected in the low non-performing loan ratio of 2.5% in the first half of 2025. The Danish housing market has experienced further significant growth, with average prices for single-family homes and owner-occupied flats rising by 5% and over 8% respectively in the past year. This surge was most pronounced in Greater Copenhagen, where flat prices increased by 14%, driven by low supply and limited new construction. Despite nominal prices reaching record highs, real prices, adjusted for inflation, remain below the 2021 peak.
Denmark boasts one of the most favorable business environments in the world, characterized by a competitive regulatory framework. The country has low barriers to entry, which facilitates smooth cross-border trade, and it benefits from a supportive fiscal climate. Furthermore, Denmark is a leader in technological innovation and is committed to pioneering green investment policies.
The Danish political system is renowned for its transparency and efficiency. With one of the lowest levels of corruption and a clear separation of powers, the system enjoys widespread public trust. The political landscape is divided between the Social Democrats, led by Mette Frederiksen and currently ruling in a bipartisan government with the Liberals and the Moderates, and the center-right. With its generous and transparent welfare programs, dynamic economy and tough stance on immigration, the right has almost no ground left to cover. However, the latter point could prove sensitive, as discrimination against minorities could stoke social unrest.
Jasmin Gröschl, Senior Economist for Europe
Updated in January 2026
Administrative information
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| Form of state | Constitutional Monarchy |
| Head of state | Mette Frederiksen (PM) |
| Next elections | 2026, legislative |
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths
- Strong business environment
- Healthy public finances
- Strong institutions
- Highly skilled workforce
- Leading green tech
Weaknesses
- Exposed housing market
- Small and open economy
- High tax burden
- High regulatory requirements
- High household debt
Trade structure
Trade Structure by destination/origin
Trade Structure by product
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