Low Risk for Enterprise
Finland
-
Economic risk
-
Business environment risk
-
Political risk
-
Commercial risk
-
Financing risk
-
Economic risk
-
Business environment risk
-
Political risk
-
Commercial risk
-
Financing risk
Economic Overview
-
Cyclical risks
-
Inflation
-
Financing risks
-
Structural business environment risks
-
Political risks
Finland has experienced modest growth over the past decade, with an average rate of +0.9%. However, the economy rebounded in 2021, slowing again in 2022 to +0.8%. This was largely driven by consumer spending fueled by excess savings accumulated during the pandemic. In 2023, Finland slipped into a recession, with a decline of -1.3%. This economic weakness is widespread and is influenced by factors such as inflation eroding purchasing power, tighter financing conditions and lackluster performance in export markets. While growth remained subdued at +0.4%, 2024 brought some encouraging signs. A decrease in inflation and interest rates has bolstered consumer confidence, although it remains fragile. In the first half of 2025, the economy declined again and the expected growth did not materialize. The fundamentals of economic growth have clearly improved, with the slowdown in inflation and drop in interest rates increasing households’ purchasing power. However, weak consumer and business confidence has so far prevented nascent economic growth from taking hold. Construction has continued to stagnate and the labor market situation remains challenging. Finland’s unemployment rate of more than 9% is the second highest in the EU. The weak labor market is one of the major factors behind weak consumer confidence. However, order intake in manufacturing is already improving, and reduced trade uncertainty with the US, thanks to the EU-US trade deal, has stabilized business and household confidence. Insolvency numbers have risen in the last two years with +5% in 2024 and +12% in 2025. Insolvencies are expected to decrease again by -8.7% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. We expect the Finnish economy to grow by +1.0% in both 2026 and 2027, when construction activity picks up again.
Inflation reached 7.1% in 2022, driven mainly by rising energy and food prices. After peaking in the last quarter of 2022, inflation decelerated to +6.3% in 2023. A broadbased drop has occurred, with inflation coming in at +1.6% in 2024. While annual inflation in goods and food has fallen to nearly zero, service prices have clearly increased. The price of electricity has fallen consistently. In 2025, inflation was under control, falling to +0.4%, which was lowered by the drop in interest rates despite the VAT rate hike that took place late last year. Cheap energy has reduced inflation and prices of goods have only risen moderately. However, food prices have increased by +3% again. Services price inflation has slowed, but remains above 3%. As inflationary pressures are generally low, it is expected to remain subdued in 2026 at +1.4%, rising to around target at +2% in 2027.
Finland has a history of moderate fiscal deficits, typically amounting to around -3% of GDP over the past decade. However, public finances deteriorated significantly, dropping from -0.4% in 2022, bolstered by higher-than-expected inflation, increased social security contributions and the gradual lifting of pandemic measures to -2.7% in 2023. The deficit widened further to -4.4% in 2024. In response, the Finnish government implemented a VAT increase in late 2024 and cut social benefits to boost revenue. Public finances are expected to improve as inflation has fallen and index-linked social benefits will increase only modestly. Although expensive wage settlements in the public sector will have an impact for several years to come, wage growth will also be more moderate than in recent years. Additionally, growth in interest expenses is coming to an end. However, the procurement of fighter aircraft by the Finnish Defence Forces began to burden public finances in 2025, slowing down the reduction of the public sector deficit. The deficit is expected to improve gradually from -4.0% in 2025 to -3.5% in 2026 and -3.0% in 2027. Nevertheless, public debt will continue to rise as expenditure remains higher than revenue. In 2023, the debt-to-GDP ratio was 77.1%, indicating a resumption of the upward trend. It stood at 82.1% in 2024 due to sluggish GDP growth and reached an estimated 86.4% in 2025. It is expected to stand at 88.0% in 2026 and 88.7% in 2027. As a member of the Eurozone, Finland's monetary policy is influenced by decisions made by the European Central Bank.
Finland's political stability, low corruption levels and transparent legal system contribute to a secure business environment that fosters growth and development. Its strong inclination towards innovation is evident in its advanced digital infrastructure, which reflects the country's commitment to progress. As a global leader in green technology and data-driven solutions, Finland leverages its expertise and innovative approach to excel in these fields, positioning itself at the forefront of sustainable advancements.
Like in other Nordic countries, the Finnish political system is regarded as a model of transparency and efficiency. The country is ruled by the liberal conservative National Coalition in a right-wing coalition with the Finns Party, The Swedish People’s Party and the Christian Democrats under Prime Minister Petteri Orpo since 2023. Political opposition is more often constructive than seen elsewhere.
Jasmin Gröschl, Senior Economist for Europe
Updated in January 2026
Administrative information
Swipe to view more
| Form of state | Parlementiary Republic |
| Head of government | Petteri Orpo (PM) |
|
Next elections |
2027, Legislative |
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths
- Attractive business environment
- High R&D spending
- High-skilled workforce
- Robust welfare state
Weaknesses
- Exposure to Russia still high
- High private debt, notably linked to housing loans
- High labor costs
- Weak demographics
Trade structure
Trade Structure by destination/origin
Trade Structure by product
Read our latest reports
-
23 March
Signal without response: Why the EU ETS needs resolve, not redesign
The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is at a political and structural inflection point, with allowance prices falling sharply by around -24% in the first two months of 2026.
-
17 March
Not all Emerging Markets are equal: Hormuz, triple deficits, and the new energy risk premium
Less than 2 months’ disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could push average EM inflation higher by +0.8-1.0p with limited recessionary effects – apart from GCC countries.
-
16 March
Warsh's double dilemma: when the Middle East rewrites the Fed's playbook
The energy price shock will delay the Fed’s single rate cut in 2026.
Tomorrow: a podcast by Allianz Research
This is a podcats from the global team of economists, strategists, sector advisors and foresight experts of the Allianz Group, led by Ludovic Subran. In each episode, we’ll be talking about our latest analyses of economic and capital market developments, as well as our view on trends affecting risk management.
Follow our Youtube channel
Watch our Ask me anything economic videos, published every quarter.
Our expertise and commitment
Allianz Trade is the global leader in trade credit insurance and credit management, offering tailored solutions to mitigate the risks associated with bad debt, thereby ensuring the financial stability of businesses. Our products and services help companies with risk management, cash flow management, accounts receivables protection, Surety bonds, business fraud Insurance, debt collection processes and e-commerce credit insurance ensuring the financial resilience for our client’s businesses. Our expertise in risk mitigation and finance positions us as trusted advisors, enabling businesses aspiring for global success to expand into international markets with confidence.
Our business is built on supporting relationships between people and organizations, relationships that extend across frontiers of all kinds - geographical, financial, industrial, and more. We are constantly aware that our work has an impact on the communities we serve and that we have a duty to help and support others. Everyone at Allianz Trade is encouraged and supported in giving back to communities around them and sharing the benefit of our skills and resources. As a financial services business, we are especially dedicated to raising the level of financial literacy through our business Tips & advice so that individuals can live their lives in confidence and security. We are also strongly committed to fairness for all, without discrimination, among our own people and in our many relationships with those outside our business.