Stagnation ahead due to electricity blackouts, factionalized elites and policy distraction

C3

SENSITIVE RISK for enterprise

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

Updated in February 2023.

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GDP
USD405.9bn (World ranking 38, World Bank 2022)
Population
59.9mn (World ranking 24, World Bank 2022)
Form of state Republic
Head of government Cyril Ramaphosa (President)
Next elections 2024, presidential and legislative
  • Key strategic economic and political player in the region, with a rich natural resource base (gold, platinum, chrome, manganese, vanadium, coal and diamonds) and judicial and business environments ranking above the regional average
  • Exchange-rate flexibility helps to cushion external shocks and the central bank has an established track record of proactive and credible policy stances
  • Deep financial markets and a sound banking sector (overall ample liquidity, good asset quality, satisfactory capitalization)
  • Exchange rate flexibility helps to cushion external shocks and the central bank has an established track record of proactive and credible policy stance
  • Deep financial markets and a sound banking sector (overall ample liquidity, good asset quality, satisfactory capitalisation)
  • Social tensions and insecurity persist amid high poverty, income inequality and endemic unemployment (above 30%)
  • Structural issues weigh on potential growth while the electricity crisis has been declared a national state of disaster, with flood damages increasing the losses caused by load shedding
  • Elevated dependence on portfolio investment flows and aging infrastructure (energy and transport) limit the development of a diversified industrial base

Trade structure by destination/origin

(% of total, 2021)

Exports Rank Imports
China 24.3%
1
27.8% China
United States 11.7%
2
12.7% Germany
Germany 9.9%
3
7.9% India
India 8.2%
4
7.2% United States
United Kingdom 7.7%
5
3.5% Netherlands

Trade structure by product

(% of total, 2021)

Exports Rank Imports
Metalliferous ores and metal scrap 24.3%
1
9.0% Road vehicles
Non-ferrous metals 22.1%
2
8.1% Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials
Road vehicles 9.9%
3
6.1% Other industrial machinery and parts
Iron and steel 7.8%
4
5.9% Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s.
Coal, coke and briquettes 7.0%
5
4.9% Specialised machinery
The Allianz Trade Collection Complexity Score provides a simple assessment of how easy it is to collect debt around the world. The 2022 edition covers 49 countries that represent nearly 90% of global GDP and 85% of global trade.
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