Massive state interventions helped prevent a significant wave of insolvencies in 2020, but watch out for a normalization from this paradoxical and artificial low, beginning in H2 2021 and gaining traction in 2022.
As digitalization and the rise of artificial intelligence drive automation, a new wave of knowledge-based investment is currently at work in France. This is sparking both business creation and insolvencies, besides changing the pace of capital depreciation and lowering labor costs and prices in the French economy.
Global trade of goods and services remained quite resilient this year despite the US’ protectionist rhetoric. In 2019, trade momentum is set to soften to +3.6% (down from +3.8% in 2018) in line with global growth.